Ahead of the Open | June 16, 2022

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GRAIN CALLS

Corn: 8 to 11 cents higher.

Soybeans: 8 to 10 cents higher.

Wheat: 4 to 8 cents higher.

GENERAL COMMENTS: New-crop corn futures rose to the highest level in over three weeks and soybeans also gained amid an outlook for more extreme heat in the Midwest. Soybean and wheat futures were firmer. Malaysian palm oil futures dropped to a four-month low on expectations for greater supplies. Front-month U.S. crude oil futures are down over $1. U.S. stock futures signal a lower open as global equity markets extended a recent nosedive, while the U.S. dollar index is about 300 points lower this morning.

Extreme heat will continue in most of the U.S. Plains and parts of the western Corn Belt Friday and over the weekend, with temperatures expected to top 100 degrees Fahrenheit as far north as the Dakotas and Minnesota, World Weather Inc. said. While soil moisture and crop conditions are still mostly very good, hot weather and limited rainfall over the coming week is “guaranteed to deplete topsoil moisture and induce a little stress” to young crops in some parts of the region, the forecaster said.

Romania’s grain crop will be smaller than last year’s record but the country will have surplus to sell onto the world market, according to the country’s ag minister. “We will certainly have a stable production this year, to me this means having an export surplus,” the ag minster told Reuters.

Argentina’s Economy Ministry will allow increased levels of biodiesel in fuel to address shortages of diesel fuel. The use of biodiesel will increase to 12.5% from the current 5% for a period of 60 days and remain at 7.5% after the 60-day period.

Japan purchased 186,441 MT of wheat in its weekly tender, including 99,293 MT U.S., 64,148 MT Canadian and 23,000 MT Canadian. Bangladesh withdrew its tender to buy 50,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat.

 

CORN: USDA reported net U.S. corn sales during the week ended June 9 at 140,900 MT for 2021-22, down 50% from the previous week, down 45% from the average for the previous four weeks and a marketing-year low. Net sales for 2022-23 totaled 138,900 MT. Both numbers were at the low end of trade expectations.

December corn futures touched $7.33 1/4 near the close of overnight trading, the contract’s highest intraday price since May 24. July corn climbed to $7.83 3/4, pushing above the 40-day moving average.

SOYBEANS: Net weekly soybean sales totaled 317,200 MT for 2021-22, down 26% from the previous week and down 16% from the prior four-week average. China led buyers at 135,400 MT, including decreases of 1,600 MT. For 2022-23, net sales of 407,600 MT were down from 595,300 MT the previous week. Sales were within trade expectations ranging from 100,000 to 500,000 MT for 2021-22 and 100,00 to 600,000 MT for 2022-23.

WHEAT: Net weekly wheat sales totaled 236,900 MT for 2022-23, down from 451,000 MT the previous week. Sales were at the low end of expectations ranging from 200,000 to 600,000 MT.

 

LIVESTOCK CALLS

CATTLE: Steady-firmer

HOGS: Steady-firmer

CATTLE: Live cattle futures may extend Wednesday’s sharp gains behind cash market strength and concerns over extreme heat stressing animals in the Plains. USDA-reported live steers averaged $143.81 through Wednesday morning, up nearly $4.00 from last week’s average. Futures’ discount to the cash market could stir additional buying interest. Choice beef cutout values fell $1.22 Wednesday to $268.22 but movement was strong at 134 loads. August live cattle jumped $2.725 Wednesday to $136.80. August feeders rose $1.975 to $173.275.

Net weekly beef sales totaled 17,400 MT, down 2% from the previous week and down 12% from the prior four-week average. Top buyers included Japan (5,200 MT, including decreases of 600 MT) and China (4,600 MT, including decreases of 100 MT).

HOGS: Lean hog futures may extend Wednesday’s gains on continued cash market strength. The CME lean hog index is up 44 cents today after reaching a 10-month high at $108.13 (as of June 13). July and August futures’ discount to the index could generate followthrough buying. Pork cutout values fell $2.88 Wednesday to $105.79, led by a decline of over $12 in bellies. Movement was slower than previous days at 287 loads. Net weekly pork sales totaled 27,600 MT, up 65% from the previous week and up 1% from the prior four-week average. Mexico led buyers at 14,700 MT.

China’s sow herd at the end of May was larger than in April, its first monthly increase in a year, an ag ministry official said. The sow herd rose 0.4% in May to 41.92 million head but was still 4.7% smaller than a year ago. Chinese hog producers have been liquidating sows over the past year amid poor production margins.

 

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