GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Soybeans: 2 to 4 cents lower.
Wheat: 1 to 3 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans saw persistent weakness overnight following reports of China buying several cargoes of beans out of Argentina. Grains saw fresh for-the-move lows before rebounding and showing modest strength going into the break. Outside markets are quiet this morning as front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher while the U.S. dollar index is around 25 points lower.
USDA reported daily export sales of 122,947 MT of corn for delivery to Mexico. Of the total, 100,593 MT is for delivery during 2025-26 while the remaining 22,354 MT is for delivery during 2026-27.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier has lowered his 2025 U.S. corn yield forecast by 2.0 bushels this week, to 182.0 bu/ac with a neutral-to-lower bias. The weekly USDA crop progress report showed the condition of the U.S. corn crop declined 1% this week to 66% rated good/excellent. This is the fourth week in a row that the condition has declined. “Early corn yields are generally disappointing, which could be an indication that southern rust has caused more problems than originally anticipated.” Cordonnier lowered his 2025 U.S. soybean yield by 0.5 bushel this week, to 52.0 bu/ac with a neutral-to-lower bias. USDA Monday afternoon reported the condition of the 2025 U.S. soybean crop declined 2% this week, to 61% rated good/excellent. “For the soybean crop, the dryer conditions in the eastern and southern locations are a concern, especially now with warmer temperatures. These conditions should force the soybeans to mature quickly,” said Cordonnier.
The U.S. has pledged financial support for Argentine President Javier Milei ahead of midterm elections next month. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has vowed to provide “all options for stabilization,” and the U.S. is ready for a large, forceful intervention in Argentina. The news offered a much needed respite to Argentina’s battered assets, with bonds jumping, stocks leaping 8%, and the currency set for the biggest advance since May on Monday, according to Bloomberg.
Bearish news for the grains and soy complex futures markets came Monday as Argentina said it will remove export duties on all grains for over a month to boost the supply of dollars during that period, according to a government source. It will expire on Oct. 31, or once Argentine farmers have sold $7 billion worth of exports, reports said. Early reports from traders say China booked at least 10 cargoes of Argentine soybeans since they cut export taxes. The country’s markets had been in free-fall ever since Milei’s party landslide loss in the Buenos Aires’ provincial election earlier this month, which raised the prospect of his free-market reform agenda stalling after the midterms. The central bank spent $1 billion in just two days last week to keep the peso from plunging as it fell almost every single session this month.
CORN: December corn found support at the 40-day moving average, currently at $4.18 1/2, overnight. A bounce off that level has bulls eyeing resistance at $4.25.
SOYBEANS: November soybeans continued lower overnight. Key support stems from the overnight low of $10.05 which is reinforced by the psychological $10.00 level. Resistance stands at $10.16 on a bounce.
WHEAT: December SRW wheat made a fresh contract low overnight. Support stems from the overnight low of $5.07 1/4. Bulls are eyeing resistance at $4.15 then $5.20 1/4 on profit-taking.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Higher.
CATTLE: Cattle futures are expected to open higher in a continuation of yesterday’s strength. Limits will be expanded today following yesterday’s limit higher close in deferred feeders. Last week’s cash cattle average sunk another $1.82 to $237.51 but feedlots are likely to be emboldened by gains seen in futures this week and hold out for higher bids. Wholesale beef ended Monday mixed with Choice falling 66 cents to $381.39 while Select rose $2.17 to $362.09.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open higher in a continuation of Monday’s strength. Lean hog bulls remain in full control of the technical advantage as prices remain in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The CME lean hog index is down another 36 cents to $104.98 as of Sept. 19. Pork cutout edged $1.25 higher to $113.30 on Monday, led by gains in picnics and loins.