GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents lower.
Soybeans: 3 to 6 cents lower.
Wheat: 7 to 10 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Profit-taking was seen across the grain and soy complex overnight with each market hitting fresh highs before reversing lower. Front-month crude oil futures are trading around $3 lower this morning while the U.S. dollar index is up around 125 points. The fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire held Tuesday morning after a day of clashes involving shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks against the United Arab Emirates. The violence erupted after President Trump announced “Project Freedom,” which he described as a humanitarian effort to guide neutral ships stranded in the Gulf through Hormuz. Iran warned all ships against trying to get through Hormuz without its permission and hit a South Korean bulk carrier and attacked an empty tanker belonging to the UAE’s state oil firm.
USDA released its weekly crop progress and condition report Monday afternoon, showing U.S. winter wheat in 37% very poor to poor condition, 32% fair and 31% good to excellent conditions. The good to excellent category was up 1% from last week and came in 1% above the average analyst estimate according to a poll conducted by Bloomberg. On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop declined 0.56 points to 263.90. Declines in Kansas and Oklahoma were partially offset by slight gains elsewhere in the Plains. The SRW crop notched a mild increase of 3.92 points to 363.59 following spotty precipitation and cooling temperatures offering some relief across the Midwest last week. Even with the uptick, SRW conditions remain below year-ago levels for this time.
USDA afternoon reported U.S. corn was 38% planted as of Sunday compared to 38% last year and 34% for the five-year average. This represents an increase of 13% for the week. Corn was 13% emerged compared to 10% last year and 9% average. U.S. soybeans were 33% planted as of Sunday compared to 28% last year and 23% for the five-year average. This represents an increase of 10% for the week. Soybeans were 13% emerged compared to 6% last year and 5% average.
CORN: July corn futures hit the March 9 high before reversing lower overnight. Bulls are looking to hold support at $4.80 then $4.75 on persistent selling. Resistance stands at the overnight high of $4.87 1/2.
SOYBEANS: July soybeans saw profit-taking overnight. Bulls are looking to hold support at $12.06 1/4 then the psychological $12.00 mark on continued selling. Resistance stands at the $12.25 mark on a turn higher.
WHEAT: July SRW futures continue to consolidate near support at $6.32 1/2, the 10-day moving average. A break below that mark eyes support at $6.25. Bulls are looking to overcome resistance at $6.40 then the overnight high of $6.50 1/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone supported by discounts to the cash market. Last week, cash cattle trade averaged a record $255.02, up $8.84 from the prior week.Selling efforts were thwarted by the 10-day moving average Monday, which remains key support today. Choice beef rose $2.45 Monday, rising to $391.56.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone on corrective buying. Prices hit a fresh for-the-move low on Monday. The CME lean hog index is down another 27 cents to $91.03 as of May 1, extending the contra-seasonal decline. Pork cutout slid 23 cents to $97.36 Monday, led by losses in loins and hams.