GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents lower.
Soybeans: 2 to 4 cents lower.
Wheat: SRW 1 to 3 cents lower; HRW 3 to 5 cents lower; HRS 2 to 4 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and wheat led weakness overnight while the downside was limited in soybeans by technical support. Equity futures gave up a portion of Friday’s strong gains overnight, while front-month crude oil futures continue to undergo persistent selling pressure and are nearing the April lows. The U.S. dollar index is around 500 points lower this morning.
President Donald Trump signaled that new trade agreements may be announced as early as this week, asserting his personal control over the process. “We’re negotiating with many countries but at the end of this I’ll set my own deals because I set the deal, they don’t set the deal, I set the deal,” he told reporters aboard Air Force One. Trump called for a “fair” and “balanced” deal with China but confirmed he does not plan to speak directly with President Xi Jinping this week. “We’re talking to them — we’ll see what happens,” he said, suggesting potential announcements soon without committing to a timeline. Trump said trade talks with India are “progressing very well,” echoed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent who added that the U.S. is “very close” to finalizing a deal. Negotiations with Japan and South Korea are also moving forward. Trump boasted that “we’ve completed up to 200 deals” in recent interviews, though no country-specific details were given. He said more information would come “in the next few weeks.” Analysts are skeptical about the scale and speed of the claimed 200 agreements. Trade experts note that such a volume of deals typically takes months or years to finalize. Still, momentum appears to be building with key partners like India and China, and selective announcements may be forthcoming.
President Trump sharply criticized Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum after she rejected his proposal to deploy U.S. troops to combat drug cartels in Mexico. Sheinbaum cited sovereignty concerns, declaring that “our territory is inviolable.” Trump responded that Sheinbaum declined due to fear, saying, “She’s so afraid of the cartels she can’t walk.” The escalating tensions threaten to unravel what had been one of Trump’s more stable bilateral relationships. Despite differences, Sheinbaum had previously managed to navigate Trump’s demands on trade and border enforcement, helping Mexico avoid the full brunt of “Liberation Day” tariffs. U.S. officials had also credited her administration for a sharp drop in migrant crossings at the southern border.
Significant rainfall is expected from the west-central to southern areas of the Plains this week, bringing beneficial precip to the HRW crop. The upper Midwest and west-central Corn Belt will continue drier than usual through May 19, which will allow of rapid planting progress. Areas of the southern Mississippi and Tennessee river basins remain too wet.
CORN: July corn futures continue to trend lower. Support stands at $4.63 1/4 then $4.58 on continued selling pressure. Bulls are seeking to break prices back above resistance at $4.70 1/4 on a bounce.
SOYBEANS: July soybean futures continue to trend largely sideways. Support at $10.51 3/4, the 10-day moving average, limited the downside overnight. Additional support stands at $10.46 3/4. Resistance comes in at $10.58 then the 200-day moving average at $10.66.
WHEAT: July SRW futures reversed off 20-day moving average resistance overnight, which remains bulls initial target at $5.45 1/2. That is backed by resistance at $5.50. Support comes in at $5.34 3/4 on continued selling pressure.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open higher amid continued record strength in the cash cattle market. Last week’s cash cattle trade set another record, though the official average will not be known until later this morning. June futures continue to trade at a hefty discount to the cash market as traders anticipate a near-term top is at hand. That could spark profit-taking later this week, especially if confirmed. Wholesale beef ended Friday mixed as Choice slipped 27 cents to $342.90 while Select climbed $1.07 to $325.35.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of Friday’s surge higher, though slowing strength in cash fundamentals could limit gains after the open. The CME lean hog index is up another 12 cents to $89.69 as of May 1. That is tied for the smallest daily advance during the last 12-day string of gains. However, pork cutout climbed $1.92 Friday to $98.38, a reversal from recent weakness that could help lift the cash index in the next couple of days.