GRAIN CALLS
Corn: ½ to 1 cent lower
Soybeans: Flat to 2 cents lower
Wheat: ½ to 1 cent lower
GENERAL COMMENTS: Grain markets saw modest pressure overnight, with corn and soybeans on track for a losing week. U.S. stock-index futures were pointing to a higher start. The U.S. dollar was flat versus major rivals, though the ICE U.S. Dollar Index, a measure of the currency against a basket of six major rivals, has lost ground this week, perhaps shoring up agricultural commodities.
USDA on Friday morning said private exporters reported sales of 462,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2025/2026 marketing year. Confusion around the timetable for the country’s purchase plans have weighed on the soybean market. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent earlier this week said China was on pace to purchase 12 million metric tons of soybeans by the end of February. That’s in contrast to a White House fact sheet published on Nov. 1 that said China “will purchase at least 12 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. soybeans during the last two months of 2025.” The administration said China had agreed to the purchases following President Donald Trump’s meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Korea in late October. The U.S. has also said China agreed to purchase at least 25 MMT of U.S. soybeans in calendar years 2026, 2027, and 2028.
USDA on Tuesday will release its December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, or WASDE. There is no December Crop Production report, with the next update due in January. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, on average, look for USDA to lower its estimate of U.S. corn ending stocks by 8.2 million bushels from its November figure to 2.146 billion bushels. Soybean ending stocks are seen rising 16.1 billion bushels to 306.1 million bushels, with wheat down 7.2 million bushels at 893.8 million bushels.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration on Thursday said in a press release it has conditionally approved Exzolt Cattle-CA1 (fluralaner) topical solution for the prevention and treatment of New World screwworm (NWS) larval infestations, and the treatment and control of cattle fever tick in beef cattle two months of age and older and replacement dairy heifers less than 20 months of age. Anything that could facilitate a reopening of the southern U.S. border to Mexican feeder cattle is potentially bearish, though bulls appeared to take the news in stride Thursday.
CORN: March corn pushed above the 200-day moving average at midweek but failed to sustain the move. The average stands at $4.47 ½, while further resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $4.50 and then the weekly high at $4.52 ½. Support remains at the 10-day moving average at $4.43 ¾ and then at $4.35.
SOYBEANS: Soybean bulls remain in charge but have lost momentum this week. Support is seen at $11.13 ¼ and then at the psychologically important $11.00 threshold. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing January prices above solid resistance at the November high of $11.69 1/2. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $11.30 3/4 and then at this week’s high of $11.42 1/4.
WHEAT: Big wheat crops in the southern hemisphere and generally favorable prospects elsewhere in the world have left wheat to languish. Support for March SRW is seen at this week’s low of $5.29 ¾ and then at $5.25, with bears aiming for a test of the contract low at $5.08 ½. Bulls want to see a close above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.68. Initial resistance is seen at $5.45 and then at $5.50.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher
HOGS: Choppy/higher
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeder cattle futures are expected to open with a firmer bias amid a rebound in cash markets this week. USDA at midday Thursday reported light cash cattle taking place so far this week at solidly higher prices, with steers and heifers averaging $216.64. USDA reported last week’s average cash cattle trading price was $211.53.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a firmer tone, aided by the bounce in cattle and signs pressure on the cash market is beginning to abate. While the overall chart posture for the hog futures market is not overtly bullish, recent gains suggest a market bottom is in place and that prices can at least work sideways in the near term. The latest CME lean hog index is up 6 cents to $81.67. Today’s projected cash index price is up 16 cents at $81.83. Thursday’s national direct 5-day rolling average cash hog price quote was $69.89.