GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Soybeans: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW 5 to 7 cents higher; HRW 8 to 10 cents higher; 4 to 6 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each posted gains overnight, making up a portion of Friday’s losses. Prices were supported by more positive news on the tariff front, though outside markets did see an uptick in volatility overnight. Front-month crude oil futures are trading near unchanged this morning while the U.S. dollar index is over 750 points lower.
USDA reported daily sales of 145,000 MT of soybean meal for delivery to the Philippines during the 2024-25 marketing year.
Nikkei Asia reports Japan is now open to negotiating a partial reduction — not full elimination —of U.S. tariffs, signaling a notable shift in Tokyo’s trade strategy following the Trump administration’s recent deals with the United Kingdom and China. Japanese officials had initially demanded the complete rollback of U.S. duties on automobiles, steel and aluminum. However, those ambitions were tempered after observing that both the U.K. and China had accepted reduced — but not fully rescinded — tariffs in their own bilateral agreements with Washington. The shift is partly motivated by concern that Japan could be left behind on a trade deal.
U.S. negotiators want India to allow shipments of ethanol for blending with gasoline, people familiar with the situation told Bloomberg, a change from current rules that promote domestic supply and permit overseas purchases of ethanol only for non-fuel use. Any relaxation of rules by India, however, could undermine the country’s efforts to cut a huge energy import bill that leaves it heavily dependent on outside nations and at the mercy of fluctuating markets, the people said. President Donald Trump has claimed India offered a trade deal with “no tariffs.” India has reportedly offered to eliminate tariffs on 60% of tariff lines in the initial phase and provide preferential access for nearly 90% of U.S. imports. However, the most sensitive sectors, including certain agricultural products and military equipment, may be addressed in later phases. Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal is in Washington for high-level talks today through Thursday.
All U.S. crop areas are likely to receive rain at one time or another during the next two weeks, according to World Weather Inc. A few areas will remain a little too wet in the lower Ohio River Basin, northern Delta and parts of the Tennessee River Basin. Temps will be much cooler this week across the central United States. Some warming is predicted in key U.S. crop areas next week, though no excessive heat is predicted.
CORN: July corn futures bounced overnight. Bulls are looking to overcome 10-day moving average resistance, which capped gains last week, at $4.50 1/4 on continued strength. Support comes in at $4.43 1/2 then $4.38 on a reversal lower.
SOYBEANS: July soybean futures bounced overnight. Resistance at the 10-day moving average at $10.56 capped the upside overnight. Additional strength finds resistance at $10.65 1/4. Support comes in at the psychological $10.50 mark then the 40-day moving average at $10.48 on a reversal back lower.
WHEAT: July SRW futures recovered a portion of Friday’s loss overnight. Resistance stems from the 20-day moving average at $5.33 1/4, which capped strength last week. Additional strength sees little resistance until $5.43 1/4. Support comes in at $5.28 then $5.23 1/2 on a reversal back lower.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open higher in a continuation of Friday’s strength as steep discounts to the cash market are likely to continue supporting futures. Cash cattle prices are poised to average another record last week, though the official price will not be released until later this morning. Cutout continues to work higher, as Choice rose another $2.59 to $352.49 Friday while Select climbed $3.21 to $342.39. Cutting margins remain deep in the red as wholesale prices have not kept up with the cattle market, though packer obligations keep negotiated counts high, giving feedlots the advantage.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, supported by cash fundamentals. The CME lean hog index continues to work higher after last week’s pause, as the index is up another 24 cents to $91.26 as of May 15, a fresh for-the-move high. Cutout pushed above the $100.00 mark Friday, a level that has stood as firm resistance the past couple months. Cutout rose 40 cents to $100.12, led by strength in hams and picnics. While prices rose, movement slowed to 274.73 loads, indicating lower demand at higher prices. How cutout trades in the next few days will be key for the short-term direction of the cash hog market.