Ahead of the Open | August 25, 2022
GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Soybeans: 10 to 12 cents lower.
Wheat: HRW and SRW 3 to 6 cents lower, spring wheat mixed.
USDA’s weekly export sales report has been delayed.
Scouts on day 3 of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour Wednesday determined an average corn yield of 190.71 bu. per acre in Illinois, down from last year’s 196.3 bu. per acre estimate and but up from the three-year Tour average of 185.62 bu. per acre. Soybean pod counts in a 3’x3’ square averaged 1,249.70 for Illinois, down from an average of 1,279.79 in 2021 and but up from the three-year Tour average of 1,174.95.
In western Iowa, average corn yields for Districts 1, 4 and 7 were 181.12, 180.8 and 173.7 bu. per acre, respectively, compared to 183.96, 201.1 and 192.47 bu. per acre, respectively, in 2021. The averages for the previous three years for Districts 1, 4 and 7 are 183.37, 188.74 and 187.83, respectively. Western Iowa pod counts for Districts 1, 4 and 7 averaged 1,089.74, 1,258.94 and 1,223.85, respectively, compared with 1,089.35, 1,225.24 and 1,367.61 averages for 2021. The averages for the previous three years for Districts 1, 4 and 7 are 1,066.2, 1,199.57 and 1,250.92, respectively.
On Day 4 of the Crop Tour today, scouts will sample more fields in Iowa as well as fields in southern Minnesota. The Tour concludes tonight in Rochester, Minnesota.
Ukrainian officials said at least 25 people were killed in an attack on a train station as Russia conducted missile strikes across Ukraine on Wednesday. The attack was one of several Russian strikes carried out in the region on Ukrainian Independence Day. Separately, Russia's defense minister today said Russian authorities will provide the necessary assistance for an inspection of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.
China’s central bank announced a one trillion ($146 billion) yuan stimulus plan. China’s State Council announced a 19-point package focused mainly on infrastructure to counter severe headwinds facing the world’s second-largest economy. It comes on top of a series of other stimulus measures such as financing for banks and last week’s interest-rate cut from the central bank. Even with the new spending, Goldman Sachs is sticking to its prediction that China will expand just 3% in 2022.
The Argentine government extended its 12.5% biodiesel blend rate to avoid fuel import increases, having first increased it in June from 5%. Argentina heavily relies on imports to meet its fuel demand, costing it valuable foreign currency, which is already in low supply and which the government is trying to hold on to amid sky-high inflation in the country.
The World Trade Organization said merchandise trade flows slowed last quarter and will likely stay weak in the second half. That’s still consistent with the WTO’s forecast for 3% growth in global merchandise trade in 2022. The pressure on trade growth is coming from the Russian war in Ukraine but there was some support from the lifting of some Covid lockdowns in China.
CF Industries will halt ammonia production at its remaining UK plant. The fertilizer producer is response to soaring natural gas prices, a move that could reduce carbon dioxide supply crucial to the food industry, according to Bloomberg.
Champagne grape pickers have had to start the harvest earlier this year, as climate change forces the makers of the French sparkling wine to rethink how they make the coveted bubbly, Reuters reported. High temperatures and the worst drought on record have caused massive wildfires and led to restrictions on water usage across France. But they also boosted grape maturity.
CORN: December corn overnight reached $6.66 1/2, just under the two-month high of $6.71 posted Wednesday. The contract is up from $6.23 1/4 at the end of last week and further gains may have bulls targeting late June highs around $6.92 and $7.00. USDA’s weekly export sales report is expected to show net U.S. 2022-23 corn sales for the week ended Aug. 18 at 500,000 to 800,000 MT, compared to 750,000 MT the previous week.
WHEAT: Winter wheat fell for the first session in five, with December SRW wheat overnight dropping as low as $7.86, but still up from $7.71 at the end of last week. USDA’s weekly export sales report is expected to show U.S. wheat sales of 200,000 to 500,000 MT for the week ended Aug. 18.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Steady-weaker
HOGS: Steady-weaker
HOGS: Lean hog futures may face further pressure after sinking to a seven-week low Wednesday on expectations the cash will continue slipping. Pork cutout values fell another $2.09 Wednesday to $102.99, a three-month low fueled partly by a decline of over $6 in bellies. Movement was a strong 305.5 loads. The CME lean hog index is down $1.18 to $118.00, around a one-month low.
