GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 2 cents lower.
Soybeans: 3 to 5 cents lower.
Wheat: 1 to 5 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS:
Corn and soybean futures fell in narrow-range overnight trading ahead of today’s Crop Production and Supply & Demand Reports from USDA. Wheat futures were slightly higher. Malaysian palm oil futures fell nearly 1%, while Nymex crude oil futures fell about 0.5%. The U.S. dollar index was little changed.
USDA releases its first survey-based U.S. corn and soybean crop estimates at 11:00 a.m. CT. Analysts on average expect USDA to estimate the corn crop at 15.004 billion bu., down from its July projection of 15.165 billion bushels. The soybean crop estimate is expected to come in at 4.375 billion bushels. USDA will also update its wheat crop estimates and issue its first survey-based cotton crop estimate.
China lowered its soybean import projection for 2020-21 by 1.84 million metric tons (MMT) to 98.6 MMT, noting weaker crush margins in recent months and delayed purchases, according to the monthly China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (CASDE) report. China’s soybean import forecast for 2021-22 held steady at 102 MMT.
Russia’s 2021 grain harvest will total 127.4 MMT, including 81 MMT of wheat, the country’s ag minister told reporters. That’s a more optimistic outlook than many private analysts in the country, who peg the country’s wheat crop under 80 MMT.
Strategie Grains trimmed its soft wheat crop estimate for the EU by 1.5 MMT, with production now projected at 131.5 MMT for 2021-22, amid weaker crop prospects for top producers like France. That figure would still be a 10.7% jump from last season’s 118.8 MMT crop.
Importers in the Philippines are believed to have rejected all offers in their tender to buy 120,000 MT of animal feed wheat and 120,000 MT of feed barley. Jordan is thought to have made no purchase in its tenders for 120,000 MT of wheat and 120,000 MT of barley. But the country did issue a new tender to buy 120,000 MT of wheat.
CORN: USDA today reported net weekly U.S. corn export sales of 377,600 MT for 2020-21, up “noticeably” from the prior four-week average, and net sales of 601,800 MT for 2021-22. Old-crop sales easily topped expectations, while new-crop sales were within the range of pre-report estimates.
SOYBEANS: Net weekly soybeans sales totaled 96,900 MT for 2020-21. For 2021-22, net sales totaled 1.12 MMT and included “unknown destinations” (643,400 MT) and China (328,000 MT). USDA reported daily soybean sales of 132,000 MT to China and 198,000 MT to unknown destinations – both for 2021-22. This is the sixth consecutive day USDA has announced daily soybean sales.
WHEAT: Net weekly export sales totaled 291,300 MT, down 5% from the previous week and down 32% from the prior four-week average. Sales were near the low end of trade expectations, which ranged from 250,000 to 550,000 MT. September SRW futures overnight rose to the highest price in over a week as wheat markets remain underpinned by prospects for smaller global supplies. Wheat futures traded in Paris reached contract highs for the second straight day, reflecting weather struggles with France’s harvest.
CATTLE: Steady-mixed
HOGS: Steady-firmer
CATTLE: Live cattle futures should be supported by a three-week rally in wholesale beef. Choice boxed beef values rose another $5.48 yesterday to $310.80, the highest since June 24 and the 15th consecutive daily gain. Boxed beef prices are up 17% since hitting a 3 1/2-month low July 20. Live slaughter-ready steers in five top feedlot areas averaged $124.71, compared to last week’s average of $123.83. Net weekly U.S. beef export sales totaled 13,600 MT, down 9% from the previous week and down 24% from the prior four-week average, USDA reported.
HOGS: Followthrough from yesterday’s corrective buying may boost lean hog futures today, though expectations for higher pork supplies this fall may limit upside. Carcass cutout values rose $1.56 yesterday to $123.96, up 29 cents for the week, on movement of 291 loads. National direct carcasses yesterday averaged $99.61, up 41 cents from Wednesday. Nearby August lean hog futures remain at a discount to the CME lean hog index ahead of Friday’s contract expiration. Net weekly U.S. pork sales totaled 14,600 MT, down 62% from the previous week and 48% from the prior four-week average. Pork sales to China totaled only 600 MT, though shipments were 5,200 MT.