GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 3 to 4 cents lower.
Soybeans: 5 to 20 cents higher.
Wheat: 2 cents lower to 5 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS:
Corn fell overnight after stronger-than-expected USDA weekly crop condition ratings tempered concern over dryness in parts of the Midwest. Soybean futures rose, as recent exports sales fueled some optimism. Wheat futures were mixed, with winter wheat contracts firmer and spring wheat lower. Nymex crude futures climbed nearly 2% and the U.S. dollar index rose near a three-week high.
USDA reported daily soybean export sales of 132,000 MT to China and 130,000 MT to unknown destinations for 2021-22 delivery. It also reported daily corn sales totaling 182,880 MT to Mexico -- 152,400 MT for delivery in 2021-22 and 30,480 MT for 2022-23.
Crop consultant Michael Cordonnier left his U.S. corn yield projection at 175.5 bu. per acre. “With the improved corn rating and more rainfall over the weekend and early this week, I am a little more confident about the U.S. corn crop,” Cordonnier said. He also maintained his U.S. soybean yield projection of 50.0 bu. per acre and again.
Conab cut its estimate for Brazil’s corn crop by 6.7 million metric tons (MMT) from last month to 86.7 MMT and slashed its 2021 corn export forecast by 6 MMT, to 23.5 MMT. It also mildly raised the Brazilian soybean crop estimate to a record 136.0 MMT, but cut its soybean export forecast by 3.3 MMT to 83.4 MMT.
Ships have been waiting for up to a month in France’s largest grain port waiting to load wheat for Algeria, Reuters reported, illustrating the disruptive impact of adverse weather in some of the world’s top producers. In France, rain has slowed the harvest, raised crop quality concerns and resulted in weak test weights.
A South Korean flour mill bought an estimated 135,100 MT of wheat, including around 50,000 MT from the U.S., 50,000 MT from Australia and 35,100 MT from Canada. Morocco’s state grains agency issued a tender to buy around 363,000 MT of U.S.-origin durum wheat under a preferential tariff import quota.
CORN: USDA yesterday reported the U.S. corn crop at 64% “good” or “excellent” as of Aug. 8, up from 62% a week ago and two percentage points above expectations. When USDA’s weekly condition ratings are plugged into the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn rating was unchanged at 363.8 points, down 7.5 points from the five-year average. December corn overnight fell as low as $5.47 1/2, just a few cents above the 100-day moving average around $5.45.
SOYBEANS: USDA reported 60% of the soybean crop in “good” to “excellent” condition, unchanged from the previous week and down from 74% a year ago. That matched trade expectations, and also resulted in a 0.1-point decline in our CCI rating, to 352.8 points, 7.6 points below average. November soybeans held within the past week’s trading range overnight, with prices hovering around the 100-day moving average at just under $13.39.
WHEAT: HRW and SRW futures remain supported by expectations for stronger exports and smaller global supplies. Spring wheat futures were under mild pressure following improvement in USDA’s weekly crop ratings. USDA rated 11% of the spring wheat crop as “good” to “excellent” at the start of this week, up from 10% a week ago.
CATTLE: Steady-firmer
HOGS: Steady-weaker
CATTLE: Surging wholesale beef prices and weaker corn should underpin live and feeder cattle futures. Choice boxed beef values jumped another $3.54 yesterday to $299.80, marking the 13th consecutive day of gains. Live slaughter-ready steers in five top feedlot areas averaged $123.83, matching last week’s average. Packer profit margins continue to expand, reaching $671.70 yesterday, according to HedgersEdge.com.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to face follow-through pressure from yesterday’s limit-down close in the October contract. Hog futures will trade with an expanded daily limit of $4.50 today. Carcass cutout values rose 57 cents yesterday to $124.24, up 6.3% over the past month. Movement was strong, at 352 loads. National direct carcasses yesterday averaged $99.06, down 9 cents from Monday. Nearby August lean hog futures, which expire Friday, remain at a discount to the CME lean hog index, which will be at $111.21 for the two days ending Aug. 6. Packer profit margins have climbed to $34.45 a head, reports HedgersEdge.com.