GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Soybeans: 10 to 12 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW steady to 2 cents higher; HRW 2 to 4 cents lower; HRS 2 to 4 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each traded higher in early overnight trading on reports that the U.S. and China will be meeting to discuss trade, though each pulled well off overnight highs this morning with wheat leading profit-taking efforts. Outside markets are relatively quiet this morning as front-month crude oil futures are trading near unchanged while the U.S. dollar index is around 200 points higher.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet China’s economic tsar He Lifeng in Switzerland this weekend for talks that could be the first step toward resolving the trade war. “My sense is this will be about de-escalation,” Bessent told Fox News. “We’ve got to de-escalate before we can move forward.” China’s commerce ministry said, “On the basis of fully considering global expectations, China’s interests and the appeals of U.S. industry and consumers, China has decided to re-engage the U.S.” The two sides are expected to discuss reductions to broader tariffs, two sources familiar with the planning told Reuters. The talks should also cover duties on specific products, export controls and President Donald Trump’s decision to end de minimis exemptions on low-value imports, one of the sources added. Officials indicated they are not expecting major breakthroughs but see these talks as a necessary first step to reduce tensions and set the stage for future negotiations.
A group of Oklahoma crop experts projected Oklahoma’s 2025 winter wheat production at 101.169 million bu. with an average yield of 35.9 bu. per acre following an annual crop tour across the state. The estimates were based on field assessments conducted by Oklahoma State University Extension specialists as well as private crop consultants and area agronomists. Members surveyed at a meeting of the Oklahoma Grain & Feed Association pegged the state’s crop at 103.336 million bu. with a yield of 37.2 bu. per acre. In 2024, Oklahoma produced a wheat crop of 108.3 million bu. with an average yield of 38 bu. per acre. The Wheat Quality Council’s annual HRW wheat tour through Kansas will be held May 13-15.
The Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates at 4.25% to 4.50% following the two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting this afternoon. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference will be closely monitored for indications about possible rate cuts later this year, especially since this is the first policy decision since President Trump’s tariff announcements.
CORN: July corn futures continued to bounce overnight. Prices are still well below 10-day moving average resistance at $4.68, while additional resistance lies at $4.65 on the way. Support comes in at $4.58 then $4.54 1/4 on a reversal back lower.
SOYBEANS: July soybean futures surged higher overnight. Gains stopped shy of downtrend resistance at $10.54, which is reinforced by resistance at $10.58. Support comes in at the 10-day moving average at $10.49 1/2 on a reversal lower, which is backed by support at $10.43 1/4.
WHEAT: July SRW futures struggled to maintain early bullish momentum overnight. Stiff resistance persists at $5.43 1/4, the 20-day moving average, which capped gains overnight. Bulls are seeking to hold prices above the 10-day moving average at $5.37 3/4, which is reinforced by uptrend support at $5.35.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone amid optimism in the cash cattle market. Packers have remained active with cash bids this week despite the recent surge in prices and feedlots are already holding out for record prices, likely to spark additional gains in the cash market this week. Wholesale beef continues to work higher, with Choice cutout rising $1.10 to $344.67 Tuesday while Select firmed $4.90 to $332.97, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $11.70.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, driven by technical buying. While June futures closed lower Tuesday, prices are in the lower end of the recent range and finished off session lows. That late buying could continue today, especially as premiums to the cash market have shrunk in the past week. The CME lean hog index is up another 26 cents to $97.13 as of May 5, posting stronger gains than earlier this week. Pork cutout ended Tuesday lower, falling 96 cents to $95.70 as all cuts except picnics posted losses.