The Trump administration says its decision to temporarily suspend duties on Moroccan phosphate fertilizer could deliver immediate savings for farmers, but one fertilizer market analyst says whether growers actually see lower prices will depend on how much product reaches the U.S. market.
President Donald Trump on Monday declared a national emergency over fertilizer supplies and signed a proclamation allowing phosphate fertilizers from Morocco to enter the United States free of duties and estimated duty deposits for up to eight months. The White House says the Executive Order is aimed at helping ensure an adequate supply of phosphate fertilizer for American farmers.
Farm groups say the move follows years of pressure from growers over rising fertilizer costs tied in part to trade policy, with producers pointing to countervailing duties imposed in 2021 that limited phosphate imports and raised prices.
Texas corn producer Dee Vaughan says the announcement marks a long-awaited shift.
“Well, when we got the word yesterday afternoon, we were absolutely thrilled,” Vaughan says. “This is an effort that’s been ongoing for over a year to draw attention and educate everyone about the importance of eliminating this CVD that was put on during the Biden administration on phosphate fertilizer coming out of Morocco.”
According to USDA, the temporary suspension could reduce phosphate fertilizer prices by about 22%, saving U.S. farmers an estimated $1.82 billion annually as additional supplies enter the domestic market. The department estimates more than 100,000 farms across 97 million planted acres could benefit.
“Today’s announcement will bring immediate relief to producers who rely on these critical inputs,” USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins says, citing the department’s estimate of a 22% reduction in phosphate fertilizer prices and $1.82 billion in annual producer savings.
Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden says the action is designed to provide growers with a more reliable fertilizer supply heading into fall application.
“President Trump’s action today will provide immediate relief as well as a stable source of supply for American producers as they enter fall application season,” Vaden says.
StoneX: More Supply Is Good, But Prices May Not Fall Much
While farm groups have welcomed the suspension, Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX Group, says the impact on fertilizer prices is far less certain.
“I’m thrilled that this is a step forward for free trade markets,” Linville says. “U.S. and North American farmers have been suffering from a lack of phosphate import options.”
He says North American buyers have faced limited phosphate supplies in recent years as China largely exited the export market, Moroccan and Russian supplies were restricted by trade actions, and geopolitical issues complicated shipments from other producing regions.
“This move by Trump... helps to return one of our recent historical suppliers of phosphate,” Linville says.
Timing Raises Questions
Linville also questioned why the administration waited until now to suspend the duties.
“If he had this capacity, why is he waiting until today to do it?” Linville says, noting phosphate prices were substantially higher during last summer and ahead of the 2026 spring planting season.
However, Vaughan says the timing of the decision is critical as farmers prepare for fall fertilizer applications, noting it takes several months for phosphate shipments to arrive from Morocco.
“This is very timely,” Vaughan says. “It takes about 90 to 120 days for a shipload of phosphate to get to the U.S. from Morocco, so this gives an opportunity for us to source phosphate at a cheaper price heading into fall and spring applications.”
He adds that Moroccan suppliers have already signaled product availability.
“Morocco has phosphate ready to ship,” Vaughan says. “We will see immediate relief.”
Market Fundamentals Still Matter
Despite the additional supply potential, Linville cautions that economics, not just policy, will ultimately determine whether fertilizer prices decline.
“The market expectation is that values will fall. I hope that is what happens,” he says.
However, Linville notes that New Orleans DAP is already among the lowest-priced major phosphate markets in the world.
“From an economic point of view, there is very little reason for anyone to send phosphate here unless they have no other options,” he says.
One factor that could change that calculation is Morocco’s state-owned phosphate producer, OCP, which previously indicated it would not ship fertilizer to the United States while the duties remained in place.
Now that the duties have been temporarily suspended, Linville says political and business considerations could encourage shipments into the U.S.
“There may be some pressure to send tons as a show of good faith,” he says.
Fall Fertilizer Decisions Hang in the Balance
Even if the executive order has only a modest effect on fertilizer prices, Linville says any additional supply could help growers preparing for fall fertilizer purchases.
He notes the relationship between phosphate prices and corn prices is approaching historic extremes.
“With corn falling, the current NOLA DAP-to-corn ratio sits at 182,” Linville says. “It is a hair from matching or beating the all-time high set in 2008.”
If fertilizer prices remain elevated while grain prices stay under pressure, growers may simply use less phosphate this fall.
“If we do not see a sizeable cut to phosphate values—or a massive increase in grain values—that this fall could see huge demand cuts as farmers skip, reduce or delay their application,” Linville says.
For now, the administration projects the executive order will provide immediate price relief by increasing phosphate supplies and competition. Whether farmers realize USDA’s projected 22% reduction in fertilizer prices will likely depend on how much Moroccan phosphate enters the U.S. market and how global supply and demand evolve in the months ahead.
Long-Term Policy Still Unresolved
While the executive order is temporary, lasting up to eight months, Vaughan says growers will continue pushing for a permanent resolution as the policy moves through review.
“We continue to work, and that’s all we can do,” Vaughan says. “We’re hopeful they will consider all of the evidence and make the right decision.”
Fertilizer Industry Under Broader Scrutiny
The action also comes as federal regulators continue to examine fertilizer market structure and pricing.
The Federal Trade Commission and Department of Justice have opened investigations into fertilizer pricing and market concentration, following years of farmer complaints about limited competition in phosphate, potash, and nitrogen markets.
Vaughan says those efforts remain a key priority for growers.
“Basically, four firms control the fertilizer market,” he says. “We are stressing that the FTC and DOJ investigate whether there is concentration in this industry that should not be occurring.”
As corn farmers hold onto hope that a more permanent solution will resolve high fertilizer prices, some corn prices saw a $3 handle this week, a reminder relief on the inputs side can’t come soon enough.