USDA raises corn and soybean crop estimates, boosting carryover
On the other hand, its cotton production and carryover forecasts dropped more than analysts anticipated.
USDA’s U.S. wheat carryover estimate was near in line with expectations, but it cut global ending stocks quite a bit more than the market anticipated.
The following expectations are based on survey work by Reuters (Bloomberg for cotton).
|
2021 U.S. Production |
|||
|
Corn |
|||
|
Production |
Yield |
Harvested acres (mil.) |
|
|
USDA |
15.019 |
176.5 |
85.085 |
|
Average est. |
14.973 |
176.0 |
85.095 |
|
USDA Sept. est. |
14.996 |
176.3 |
85.085 |
|
Soybeans |
|||
|
|
Production |
Yield |
Harvested acres (mil.) |
|
USDA |
4.448 |
51.5 |
86.436 |
|
Average est. |
4.415 |
51.1 |
86.349 |
|
USDA Sept. est. |
4.374 |
50.6 |
86.436 |
|
Cotton |
|||
|
Production |
Yield |
Harvested acres (mil.) |
|
|
USDA |
18.004 |
871 |
9.922 |
|
Average est. |
18.37 |
NA |
NA |
|
USDA Sept. est. |
18.51 |
895 |
9.92 |
|
U.S. Carryover |
|
|
Corn – billion bushels |
|
|
2021-22 |
|
|
USDA |
1.500 |
|
Average est. |
1.432 |
|
USDA September |
1.408 |
|
Soybeans – million bushels |
|
|
2021-22 |
|
|
USDA |
320 |
|
Average est. |
300 |
|
USDA September |
185 |
|
|
|
|
Wheat – million bushels |
|
|
2021-22 |
|
|
USDA |
580 |
|
Average est. |
576 |
|
USDA September |
615 |
|
|
|
|
Cotton – million bales |
|
|
2021-22 |
|
|
USDA |
3.20 |
|
Average est. |
3.44 |
|
USDA September |
3.70 |
|
Global Carryover |
|
|
Corn – MMT |
|
|
|
2021-22 |
|
USDA |
301.74 |
|
World less China |
92.58 |
|
Average est. |
298.76 |
|
USDA September |
297.63 |
|
Soybeans – MMT |
|
|
|
2021-22 |
|
USDA |
104.57 |
|
World less China |
68.57 |
|
Average est. |
100.72 |
|
USDA September |
98.89 |
|
Wheat – MMT |
|
|
|
2021-22 |
|
USDA |
277.18 |
|
World less China |
136.16 |
|
Average est. |
280.82 |
|
USDA September |
283.22 |
|
Cotton – million bales |
|
|
|
2021-22 |
|
USDA |
87.13 |
|
World less China |
50.67 |
|
Average est. |
86.50 |
|
USDA September |
86.68 |
|
Global Production Highlights |
||
|
Corn – MMT |
||
|
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
U.S. |
358.45 (360.25) |
381.49 (380.93) |
|
Argentina |
50.00 (50.00) |
53.00 (53.00) |
|
Brazil |
86.00 (86.00) |
118.00 (118.00) |
|
South Africa |
16.90 (17.00) |
17.00 (17.00) |
|
Russia |
13.87 (13.87) |
15.00 (15.50) |
|
Ukraine |
30.30 (30.30) |
38.00 (39.00) |
|
China |
260.67 (260.67) |
273.00 (273.00) |
|
Soybeans – MMT |
||
|
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
U.S. |
114.75 (112.55) |
121.06 (119.04) |
|
Argentina |
46.20 (46.00) |
51.00 (52.00) |
|
Brazil |
137.00 (137.00) |
144.00 (144.00) |
|
Paraguay |
9.90 (9.90) |
10.50 (10.50) |
|
China |
19.60 (19.60) |
19.00 (19.00) |
|
Wheat – MMT |
||
|
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
U.S. |
49.75 (49.69) |
44.79 (46.18) |
|
Argentina |
17.65 (17.65) |
20.00 (20.00) |
|
Australia |
33.00 (33.00) |
31.50 (31.50) |
|
Canada |
35.18 (35.18) |
21.00 (23.00) |
|
EU |
126.00 (125.94) |
139.40 (139.00) |
|
Russia |
85.35 (85.35) |
72.50 (72.50) |
|
Ukraine |
25.42 (25.42) |
33.00 (33.00) |
|
Cotton – million bales |
||
|
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
U.S. |
14.61 (14.61) |
18.00 (18.51) |
|
Australia |
2.80 (2.80) |
4.70 (4.70) |
|
Brazil |
10.82 (10.75) |
12.50 (12.50) |
|
India |
28.00 (28.30) |
28.00 (28.50) |
|
China |
29.50 (29.50) |
26.75 (26.75) |
|
Pakistan |
4.50 (4.50) |
5.00 (5.90) |
