The monthly survey of rural bank CEOs finds a continuing negative view in economic activity and outlook. According to the April survey, the Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) is below growth neutral for the third consecutive month.
Overall: The region’s overall reading for April is a still weak 47.9, which is up from March’s 40.9 but still below growth neutral. This marks the 14th time since January 2025 the index has moved below the growth neutral threshold. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.
“Weakness in farm commodity prices and elevated agriculture input costs are spilling over into the rural business community. Approximately 54.2% of bankers report their local economy is in a recession,” says Creighton University’s Dr. Ernie Goss, who conducts the survey.
Jeff Bonnett, CEO of Havana National Bank in Illinois states, “Our local economy is driven by ag and right now, our local economy is suffering.”
Farm and ranchland prices: For the third time in 2026, the region’s farm and ranchland price index sank below growth neutral to 48.0 from 50.2 in March. “Though farm and ranchland values have been holding up much better than farm income, weak farm income, lower farm liquidity and tougher credit standards have pushed farmland values lower,” observes Goss.
Jim Eckert, Executive VP and Trust Officer of Anchor State Bank in Anchor, Illinois, reports, “Recent rains have improved prospects for the 2026 crop, although with depleted ground water in our area, timely rains will be required to generate a good crop.”
Farm equipment sales: The April farm equipment sales index slumped to a very weak 26.1, down from 28.6 in March. This is the 32nd straight month the index has fallen below growth neutral.
“The 2026 conflict in Iran has created even more volatility in the agricultural sector, impacting agricultural equipment sales by tightening farmer operating margins via increasing input costs and shifting farmer planting decisions,” says Goss.
According to Bonnett, “Life on (rural) main street in the communities we serve here in West Central Illinois is still a struggle as our grain farmers face the ongoing challenge of operating just at or below break-even to raise their crops.”
As expected, Bonnett indicates this has a direct and negative impact on small businesses in the area. “The 11% increase in gas prices at the pump is not helping but adding to this challenge,” reports Bonnett.
Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. Even so, the April confidence index rose to a weak 39.1 from 29.5 in March. “In spite of $12 billion of federal farm support, weak grain prices, higher input prices and expected negative farm cash flows continued to weigh on banker confidence,” notes Goss. Approximately 62.5% of bank CEOs report the $12 billion Farm Bridge Assistance Program has had only a slightly positive to no impact on the rural economy.
The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally- and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The Rural Mainstreet Index covers 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300.