“Stay Out of Our Lane": Cattle Producers Say Trump’s Beef Import Plan Feels Like Betrayal

At Hertzog Meat Company’s newly finished storefront in Butler, Mo., business is booming. Online orders arrive daily, and ground beef is on nearly every ticket.

“We get orders every single day, and I’ve got a couple orders we’re getting ready to pack,” says Mike Quick, owner and partner of Hertzog Meat Company, pointing to one order alone that calls for 40 lb. of ground beef.

The Hertzogs opened their own meat processing facility in 2021. Their unique vertical integration allowed them to expand to the newest facility, offering even more items to shoppers.

Asked whether ground beef shows up on nearly every order that comes through, Quick doesn’t hesitate.

“Absolutely, absolutely, every order,” Quick says.

And he says the momentum isn’t slowing down. “Not at all. Absolutely not. No, actually the demand’s increasing,” Quick says. “We’re producing more ground beef than we ever have.”

Five Miles North, A Different Story

Just five miles from the Hertzog family’s processing storefront is where you’ll find Jim Hertzog every Thursday. He owns Mo-Kan Livestock market, a sale barn more than three decades old. And inside, you’ll see a sale ring that’s typically packed with cattle and buyers ready to bid during the Thursday sale.

But when U.S. Farm visited early last week, Hertzog admitted it wouldn’t be as full as it’s typically been.

“Not as full as what they were going to be,” says Jim Hertzog, owner of Mo-Kan Livestock Market, when asked if the pens would be full last week. “We’ve had several people decide to cancel and sit on the cattle. They’re waiting to see what the market does because of the president’s tweet about bringing in all the extra lean, or lifting the tariff. It has drove the board down considerably. And a lot of people are just going to wait.”

The reason, Hertzog says, traces directly back to one post.

“Because of the speculators in Chicago that drove the board down,” Hertzog says.

The Post That Moved the Market

The Truth Social post came Friday, Aug. 21. President Trump announced a decision to pause higher tariffs on ground beef imports for 90 days, allowing up to 300,000 metric tons of ground beef into the U.S. out-of-quota and tariff-free.

“This deal will reduce prices for Americans while giving space for our Great American Beef Herd to grow again,” the president said in the post.

Hertzog says when he initially saw that post, his first reaction was disbelief.

“Typical Trump. I couldn’t believe it,” Hertzog says. “This is the third time that he’s attacked the cattlemen with three major tweets, and this one seems to be more devastating than any of the others. The board has crashed. I mean, the August feeder board is down almost $40 now, which is several dollars per head.”

“Timing Couldn’t Be Worse” As Producers Prepare for Fall Run

With fall run approaching, Hertzog says the timing couldn’t be worse for the producers who sell through his barn.

“We’re not a cow-calf producer, but we’re a backgrounder,” Hertzog says. “But our producers that we sell for, they’re going to be taking considerably less for their cattle than they would have if he just kept his mouth shut.”

Asked how much less, Hertzog points to real numbers moving through his ring.

“A six-weight steer, some of them sold here two months ago — let’s say a month ago — bring $3,000 a head,” Hertzog says. “Today, $2,300 or $2,400.”

Money Better Spent?

Hertzog’s frustration echoes that of cattle producers across the country. He took to X, posting that he believes the administration’s latest effort to bring down beef prices won’t accomplish much beyond keeping the beef herd small — arguing that leaving the tariffs in place could have instead helped incentivize herd rebuilding.

“It’s about $500 million,” Hertzog says. “And you take that $500 million and you spread that across the ranchers and the cattlemen in the United States that want to retain and build the herd back, that would give them $200 a head to do that. That’s two and a half million head of cattle. And we’re helping our producers right here in America. We’re not helping producers overseas like the president is doing right now.”

Asked directly whether the president’s plan to lower ground beef prices hinders herd rebuilding, Hertzog doesn’t mince words.

“Yes, 100%,” Hertzog says. “You can look at the board, and the value of a calf has dropped dramatically in the past 30 days. Everybody’s losing confidence in rebuilding the herd. It’s gone.”

“A Fuel Price Problem, Not a Beef Price Problem”

Hertzog says that when it comes to affordability, cheaper protein options already exist on grocery shelves — and he argues the real squeeze on consumers isn’t the price of beef at all.

Asked whether the country has a fuel price problem rather than a beef price problem, Hertzog agrees completely.

“We really do, we really do,” Hertzog says. “Since the war started, fuel went up probably $1.17, $1.20 a gallon. I’ve done a little math — if you go fill your fuel tank up, a 20-gallon tank, it’s going to cost you over $20 more, about $22 more for 20 gallons of gas. And that $22, you could buy 3.2 lb. of ground beef. But now the president and the government — anytime the government gets involved, we’re worse off.”

What the Data Actually Shows

Kansas State University’s Glynn Tonsor has tracked consumer meat demand since 2020 through the Monthly Meat Demand Monitor, which shows financial sentiment among some consumers has been on the decline. But Tonsor says affordability itself is a term that isn’t easily defined or tracked.

“If you define it as consumer expenditures relative to median disposable income, which is just one definition, there’s a long-term trend in meat actually becoming more affordable,” says Glynn Tonsor, professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics at Kansas State University. “Since 2024, that statement would not apply for beef.”

Data from the Livestock Marketing Information Center shows shoppers are spending more of their disposable income on beef — though that share remains relatively low by historical standards.

“The consumer demand strength, which is truly historic in magnitude the last two, two and a half years, would say I can’t make the same statement for beef,” Tonsor says. “The purchase price of beef and total expenditures is above the typical trend relative to disposable income the last two or three years. But I generally believe that’s because the public’s demand for beef, their desire for beef, has grown, and therefore it’s been trend-changing. And that’s what’s enabled cattle producers to have much higher prices than they’ve had in the past.”

Consumer Demand for Ground Beef Has Never Been Stronger

Tonsor says that even with less expensive proteins like pork and poultry on shelves, his data isn’t showing a meaningful shift in consumer buying habits.

“The consumer demand strength for ground beef has been stronger than the consumer demand pattern for a lot of those other products,” Tonsor says. “And I wouldn’t be doing my job as an economist if I didn’t remind us: when you have stronger demand for a product in a functioning market, you expect higher prices, and that is what we have seen. And those higher prices are what is needed for a market to signal additional production.”

Cattle Producers’ Message to Trump: “Just Stay Out of Our Lane”

Asked what he would tell the administration directly, Hertzog is blunt.

“Just stay out of our lane,” Hertzog says. “Let the market work. That’s what it’s designed to do. Stay out of our lane. Put country-of-origin labeling in place. Make sure it gets on the farm bill and passes. And then the American public can decide.”

Asked whether he believes the right voices are advising the president on beef policy, Hertzog says no.

“No, I do not. I do NOT believe that,” Hertzog says.

Cattle and Ag Groups Unite in Pushback

Four of the country’s major agricultural and beef organizations are joining forces to urge President Trump to reverse his 90-day beef import plan.

But the president isn’t backing down. He signed a proclamation Wednesday to formalize the policy, allowing up to 300,000 metric tons of foreign beef into the U.S. without triggering an out-of-quota tariff.

A joint letter signed by leadership from the Livestock Marketing Association, the American Farm Bureau Federation, the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, and the United States Cattlemen’s Association warns the policy will devastate domestic cattle markets.

As of now, no details have been released on which countries will be permitted to import the beef.

JBS Ties to the Administration Draws Questions and Scrutiny

Imports of ground beef aren’t new. However, the frustration is the thought the move to bring in more ground beef out-of-quota, tariff free won’t actually bring beef prices down.

When Hertzog was asked who he thinks is influencing the decision, he pointed straight to JBS — the world’s largest meatpacker — and one with known ties to the Trump administration.

“I think it’s the Batista brothers, JBS,” Hertzog says. “You’ve got to remember, they bribed 1,800 political people in Brazil. What stopped them from doing it here? That’s a lot of people to get their ear. And they did it.”

Whether JBS is behind the recent push to loosen ground beef import restrictions remains unknown. The administration hasn’t said from where this ground beef receiving special tariff treatment will be imported.

But the owners of JBS have been closely tied to President Trump, including a $5 million donation to his inauguration day celebration.

This week, AgBull reported at least 119,000 lb. of JBS-linked meat shipments are currently sitting at the Port of Houston.

Why This Move May Not Bring Down the Price of Retail Ground Beef

If the imported beef is from Brazil, National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) says the ground beef will never make it into the retail chain as fresh ground beef, which means it won’t help bring price relief to shoppers who think ground beef prices are too high.

Gregg Doud, president and CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) and former chief U.S. agricultural negotiator, says nearly all of that dairy cull cow product flows into the ground beef supply, where it gets blended with trimmings from fed cattle carcasses.

“That would all have to be blended together, and essentially all of that would go into food service or fast food — fast food hamburger,” Doud says.

Asked whether the imported beef would actually reach grocery store shelves, Doud says no, pointing instead to two narrow outlets.

“You might, the other place you might see some of it is in a can of chunky soup, like Campbell’s Chunky Soup,” Doud says. “That would be about the only two places you would see it.”

As for what the import plan means for dairy producers who’ve leaned on strong beef prices to offset muted milk prices, Doud says it offers little relief, and he doesn’t expect it to move retail beef prices much either.

“It doesn’t do it any good,” Doud says. “And the other thing I would say is that really, I don’t see how it affects the retail price of ground beef or beef at any great magnitude. That’s because if it is Brazilian, Brazilian beef is already the cheapest of the lean product. Australia is an 80% lean product, Brazil is a 90%, Brazil is the cheapest of that. So if you relieve the tariff, really who that goes to is the exporter, not necessarily the consumer.”

Instead, Doud says the bigger effect may be psychological, adding a new layer of supply pressure to a market already bracing for its seasonal cull cow run.

“What it really does, more or less, is it just kind of changes the psychology of the market — this is supply hanging over the head of the marketplace more than anything else,” Doud says. “And then you have on top of that the seasonality of when we take a lot of cull beef cows to market. That’s right now, this time of year. So that’s the compounding factor, seasonally, if you do this right on top of when those cull cows are coming to market, it kind of psychs the market out a little bit.”

The Administration Responds to Producer Pushback

Facing mounting backlash from farm country over the ground beef import decision, the Trump administration is now moving to give ranchers a new way around the meatpacking companies that stand between their cattle and the grocery store shelf.

President Trump said Friday he is authorizing legal documents to be drafted giving farmers and ranchers “the right to process their own food,” framing the move as an effort to break what he called a “nasty monopoly” in the meat industry.

The administration has not released the legal details of the proposal, and it remains unclear how far an executive action could go in changing existing rules. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the administration would begin unveiling beef-processing actions Monday, including steps to cut red tape, support smaller processors, and expand ranchers’ ability to sell meat across state lines.

The push comes as the Trump administration claims four companies — Cargill, Tyson Foods, JBS USA and National Beef Packing Co. — control roughly 85% of the country’s meat-processing capacity. It’s important to note private analysis by Sterling Marketing puts that number closer to 76%.

No matter the percentage, ranchers have long argued that concentration leaves them with too few buyers for their cattle, forcing smaller producers to rely on distant, federally inspected slaughter facilities to bring beef to market.

Under current law, ranchers can slaughter and process animals for their own use, but meat intended for sale generally must go through facilities that meet federal food-safety and inspection requirements — a bottleneck the administration’s forthcoming actions appear aimed at addressing.

A Market Rattled by a Single Post

Whether the new processing measures will be enough to offset producer anger over the ground beef import decision remains to be seen. For ranchers like Hertzog, who watched the board crash on the strength of a single post, the question is whether Monday’s announcement changes the math — or simply adds another policy shift to track in a market that’s already on edge.

As the administration moves forward with its beef import plan, producers say they feel betrayed. This week offered a stark illustration of how much power a single social media post can hold over the cattle market — overshadowing continued signals of tight supplies and what economists describe as historically strong consumer demand.