From The Rows August 22, 2022 - Chip Flory (West)

Thoughts from Day 1 – Western Leg Pro Farmer Crop Tour:

• There was a lot of talk this evening about 2012 and how this year’s crop is similar in many ways. Even if South Dakota’s corn crop averages 118.45 bu. per acre, it would still be 60% better than the 74 bu. per acre we measured on the 2012 tour in the Jackrabbit State. Genetics? Sure. Management and crop protection? You bet. But it’s probably not a 2012-type disaster.
• South Dakota did a flip-flop of traditional weather patterns. Yields north of I-90 are likely to be better than in the southeastern corner of the state... we typically can trim a few bushels from yield potential observed in the southeast to account for lower yields to the north. This year we can expect a lower yield year-ago, but it may not be down the 22% indicated by today’s Tour results.
• The cows are angry in South Dakota. Normally, if the grass is green and the cows are fat and happy, the corn and soybean crops will be just fine. That has been the case the past few years – it is not the case this year. Pasture conditions are generally terrible, which is weird because rains over the past couple of weeks have greened up the grass in road ditches.
• “Take off the 1.” One of the scouts out west told me today, “I wonder how many are driving by their fields thinking it will make 150? They need to know they should take off the ‘1’.” The group in Grand Island tonight consisted of mostly Nebraska farmers, but few expect their dryland corn to top 50 bu. per acre. If South Dakota producers have done some yield scouting, many in the southeast would agree.
• Corn isn’t “bullet proof.” Last year’s strong corn and soybean yields in areas that were very dry accelerated the conversation about how improved genetics and crop management have lowered production risk. This year’s South Dakota corn crop is strong evidence that rain still matters. (I know... “Obviously.” But, this year is a reminder.)
• Stress at pollination was tough on the South Dakota crop. We saw ear shoots with brown silks that did not have a pollinated kernel on the ear. We saw ears that were not pollinated on the top 20% of the cob and the bottom 20% of the cob. And we saw “zippered” ears where 4 to 6 kernel rows were unpollinated.
• Corn is denting in South Dakota... about 35-38 days after it pollinated. It should be in late-dough. Kernel size is clearly in question. The crop has been pushed since pollination.
• Soybeans look stressed. I said a few times today, “The good news is there is a bean crop in South Dakota, but bad news is it isn’t very spiffy. If it rains tonight, it will help the South Dakota bean crop. But it needs rain now.