PF Report Reaction: Acreage shocker from USDA
Market reaction
As of 11:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading mostly 15 to 16 cents lower, soybeans are 75 to 80 cents higher, SRW wheat futures are 4 to 5 cents lower, HRW wheat futures are 10 to 15 cents higher, HRS wheat is 1 to 3 cents higher and cotton futures are around 100 points higher.
Acreage Report
Corn: 94.096 mil. acres; trade expected 91.853 mil. acres
— compares with 91.996 mil. acres in March; 88.579 mil. acres in 2022
Soybeans: 83.505 mil. acres; traders expected 87.673 mil. acres
— compares with 87.505 mil. acres in March; 87.450 mil. acres in 2022
All wheat: 49.628 mil. acres; traders expected 49.656 mil. acres
— compares with 49.855 mil. acres in March; 45.738 mil. acres in 2022
Other spring wheat: 11.140 mil. acres; traders expected 10.508 mil. acres
— compares with 10.570 mil. acres in March; 10.835 mil. acres in 2022
Durum wheat: 1.483 mil. acres; traders expected 1.774 mil. acres
— compares with 1.780 mil. acres in March; 1.632 mil. acres in 2022
Cotton: 11.087 mil. acres; traders expected 11.2 mil. acres
— compares with 11.256 mil. acres in March; 13.763 mil. acres in 2022
Whoa! USDA estimated corn plantings at 94.096 million acres, up 2.1 million acres from March intentions and 2.243 million acres more than traders expected. Corn plantings jumped 5.517 million acres from last year. USDA estimates harvested acres at 86.322 million – 91.7% of plantings.
Compared to March intentions, USDA reported increased plantings in Illinois (up 500,000 acres to 11.5 million), Iowa (up 300,000 acres to 13.4 million), Minnesota (up 50,000 acres to 8.4 million), Missouri (up 200,000 acres to 3.65 million), North Dakota (up 150,000 acres to 3.9 million), Ohio (up 50,000 acres to 3.5 million), South Dakota (up 300,000 acres to 6.2 million) and Wisconsin (up 50,000 acres to 4.0 million). USDA said acreage was unchanged from March intentions in Indiana (5.5 million acres), Michigan (2.4 million acres) and Nebraska (9.5 million acres). Of the top 12 production states, only Kansas planted fewer acres to corn than intended in March (down 100,000 acres to 5.5 million).
Soybean plantings at 83.505 million acres declined 4 million acres from March intentions and were 4.168 million acres less than traders expected. Soybean plantings dropped 3.945 million acres from last year. USDA estimates harvested acreage at 82.696 million acres – 99.0% of plantings.
Compared to the March Prospective Plantings Report, soybean acres declined in Arkansas (down 150,000 acres to 2.9 million), Illinois (down 800,000 acres to 10.0 million), Indiana (down 100,000 acres to 5.5 million), Iowa (down 400,000 acres to 9.7 million), Kansas (down 350,000 acres to 4.25 million), Michigan (down 50,000 acres to 2.05 million), Minnesota (down 50,000 acres to 7.5 million), Missouri (down 400,000 acres to 5.6 million), Nebraska (down 250,000 acres to 5.5 million), North Dakota (down 900,000 acres to 5.65 million), Ohio (down 200,000 acres to 4.9 million) and Wisconsin (down 200,000 acres to 2.1 million). South Dakota planted the same amount of acres to soybeans as intended at 5.3 million. None of the top 13 production states planted more soybeans than intended in March.
All wheat acres declined 227,000 acres from March intentions to 49.628 million, which was 28,000 acres less than traders expected.
Other spring wheat acres at 11.140 million increased 570,000 acres from March intentions and were 632,000 acres more than traders expected. Spring wheat plantings increased 300,000 acres from March intentions in North Dakota (5.6 million acres) and 100,000 acres in Montana (2.8 million acres). Only Minnesota and Washington planted fewer other spring wheat acres than intended in March.
USDA estimated durum wheat plantings at 1.483 million acres, down 297,000 acres from March intentions and 291,000 acres less than trades expected.
USDA estimates all cotton plantings at 11.087 million acres, down 169,000 acres from March intentions and 113,000 acres less than traders anticipated. Texas planted 118,000 fewer acres to cotton than intended in March.
Quarterly Grain Stocks Report
Corn: 4.106 billion bu.; traders expected 4.255 billion bu.
— compares with 7.401 billion bu. March 1 and 4.349 billion bu. June 1, 2022
Soybeans: 796 million bu.; traders expected 812 million bu.
— compares with 1.685 billion bu. March 1 and 968 million bu. June 1, 2022
Wheat: 580 million bu.; traders expected 611 million bu.
— compares with 946 million bu. March 1 and 698 million bu. June 1, 2022
June 1 corn stocks in all positions are down 5.6% from year-ago and are 149 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. Of the total, 2.221 billion bu. are stored on-farm (up 4.7% from year-ago) and 1.885 billion bu. are stored off-farm (down 15.4% from year-ago). Implied disappearance in the third quarter of the 2022-23 marketing year is 3.29 billion bu., down 3.5% from year-ago.
June 1 soybean stocks in all positions are down 17.8% from year-ago and are 16 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. Of the total, 322.8 million bu. are stored on-farm (down 2.6% from year-ago) and 472.8 million are stored off-farm (down 25.7% from year-ago). Implied disappearance in the third quarter of 2022-23 marketing year is 891 million bu., down 8% from the same period last year.
Wheat stocks in all positions are down 16.9% from year-ago and are 31 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. Of the total, 124.4 million bu. are stored on-farm (up 33.8% from year-ago) and 455.7 million bu. are stored off-farm (down 24.7% from year-ago). Implied disappearance of all wheat in the final quarter of the 2022-23 marketing year was 366 million bu., up 11% from the same quarter last year.
