Market reaction
Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading around a penny higher, soybeans were 7 to 9 cents higher, winter wheat was 1 to 3 cents higher, spring wheat was around a penny lower and cotton was about 85 points higher.
As of 11:45 a.m. CT, corn is trading 3 to 5 cents higher, soybeans are 18 to 24 cents higher, winter wheat markets are 2 to 3 cents lower, spring wheat is 6 cents lower and cotton is about 30 points higher.
Winter wheat production
All wheat: 1.921 billion bu.; trade expected 1.885 billion bu.
— compares with 1.971 billion bu. in 2024
All winter wheat: 1.382 billion bu.; trade expected 1.325 billion bu.
— compares with 1.349 billion bu. in 2024
HRW: 784 million bu.; trade expected 748 million bu.
— compares with 770 million bu. in 2024
SRW: 345 million bu.; trade expected 342 million bu.
— compares with 342 million bu. in 2024
White winter: 253 million bu.; trade expected 234 million bu.
— compares with 236 million bu. in 2024
USDA’s initial winter wheat crop estimate increased 33 million bu. from last year and topped the average pre-report estimate by 57 million bushels. The winter wheat yield is estimated at 53.7 bu. per acre, up 2 bu. from last year. Harvested acreage is estimated at 25.718 million acres, down 385,000 acres from last year.
Estimated production for all three winter wheat categories came in higher than expected. The HRW is expected to rise 14 million bu. from last year and 36 million bu. more than analysts expected. The SRW crop is estimated to rise 3 million bu. from both year-ago and pre-report expectations. White winter wheat production is estimated up 17 million bu. from last year and 19 million bu. more than anticipated.
The all-wheat crop projection implies spring wheat production of 539 million bu. between other spring wheat and durum.
U.S. carryover
Corn: 1.415 billion bu. for 2024-25, down from 1.465 billion bu. in April
— projection of 1.800 billion bu. for 2025-26
Beans: 350 million bu. for 2024-25, down from 375 million bu. in April
— projection of 295 million bu. for 2025-26
Wheat: 841 million bu. for 2024-25, down from 846 million bu. in April
— projection of 923 million bu. for 2025-26
Cotton: 4.8 million bales for 2024-25, down from 5.0 million bales in April
— projection of 5.2 million bales for 2025-26
USDA cut 50 million bu. from 2024-25 corn carryover from last month. The estimate is also 29 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA left domestic use estimates unchanged from April and raised the export estimate 50 million bushels (to 2.6 billion bu.). USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2024-25 at $4.35, unchanged from last month.
For 2025-26, USDA projects corn carryover of 1.8 billion bu. – that is 220 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate and matched the lowest trade guess in the Reuters survey. Total supplies for 2025-26 are projected at 17.260 billion bu., up 605 million bu. from last year. New-crop corn production is projected at 15.820 billion bu. on planted acres of 95.3 million, harvested acres of 87.4 million and a national average corn yield of 181 bu. per acre. On the demand side, USDA puts feed & residual use at 5.9 billion bu. (up 150 million bu. from this year), food, seed & industrial use at 6.885 billion (down 5 million bu. from this year; corn-for-ethanol use is 5.5 billion bu., unchanged from this year), and exports are projected at 2.675 billion bu. (up 75 million bu. from this year). USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2025-26 at $4.20, down 15 cents from this year.
USDA cut 25 million bu. from 2024-25 soybean carryover from last month. The estimate is also 19 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate and matched the lowest trade guess in the Reuters survey. USDA made no changes on the supply side of the balance sheet. USDA held estimated old-crop bean crush steady at 2.420 billion bu. and raised estimated exports 50 million bu. to 1.85 billion. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash bean price for 2024-25 at $9.95, steady with last month.
On new-crop beans, USDA projects carryover of 295 million bu., down 55 million bu. from this year and 67 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. New-crop soybean total supplies are projected at 4.710 billion bu., down 24 million bu. from this year. The crop is projected at 4.340 billion bu. on planted acres of 83.5 million, harvested acres of 82.7 million and a national average soybean yield of 52.5 bu. per acre. On the demand side, USDA projects soybean crush of 2.49 billion bu. (up 70 million bu. from this year), exports of 1.815 billion bu. (down 35 million bu. from this year) and total use is projected at 4.415 billion bu., up 31 million bu. from this year. USDA projected a national average on-farm cash soybean price for 2025-26 at $10.25, up 30 cents from this year.
USDA trimmed 5 million bu. from its old-crop wheat carryover estimate. That estimate is 9 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. Total supplies are unchanged from last month at 2.818 billion bushels. Total use is up 5 million bu. due entirely to an increase in estimated food use to 975 million bushels. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price for 2024-25 at $5.50, unchanged from last month.
New-crop wheat carryover is projected at 923 million bu., up 77 million bu. from this year and 60 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA puts total new-crop supplies at 2.882 billion bu., up 64 million bu. from year-ago on a crop projection of 1.921 billion bu., down 50 million bu. from 2024-25. That crop projection is based on planted acres of 45.4 million, harvest acres of 37.2 million and a national average wheat yield of 51.6 bu. per acre. Total demand is projected at 1.959 billion bu. down 18 million bu. from 2024-25. USDA puts food use at 977 million bu. (up 2 million bu. from this year), seed at 62 million bu. (unchanged), feed & residual at 120 million bu. (unchanged) and exports at 800 million bushels. (down 20 million from this year). USDA puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price for 2025-26 at $5.30, down 20 cents from this year.
USDA cut old-crop cotton carryover 200,000 bales from April. Total old-crop supplies were unchanged at 17.57 million bales. Old-crop use at 12.80 million bales is up 200,000 bales with exports at 11.1 million bales accounting for the entire increase. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2024-25 at 63 cents, unchanged from last month.
New-crop cotton carryover of 5.20 million bales is up 400,000 bales from this year. Total supplies are projected at 19.31 million bales, up 1.74 million bales from the current marketing year. The crop is projected at 14.5 million bales, up 90,000 bales from last year. Planted acres are put at 9.87 million with harvested acres at 8.37 million and a national average cotton yield of 832 lbs. per acre. Total new-crop cotton use is projected at 14.2 million bales, up 1.4 million bales from this year. Domestic use is projected at 1.7 million bales, unchanged from this year. Exports are projected at 12.5 million bales, up 1.4 million bales from this year. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2025-26 at 62 cents, down a penny from this year.
Global carryover
Corn: 287.29 MMT for 2024-25, down from 287.65 MMT in April
— projection of 277.84 MMT for 2025-26
Beans: 123.18 MMT for 2024-25, up from 122.47 MMT in April
— projection of 124.33 MMT for 2025-26
Wheat: 265.21 MMT for 2024-25, up from 260.70 MMT in April
— projection of 265.73 MMT for 2025-26
Cotton: 78.4 million bales for 2024-25, down from 78.86 million bales in April
— projection of 78.38 million bales for 2025-26
Global production highlights
Argentina beans: 49.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 49.0 MMT in April
— projection of 48.5 MMT for 2025-26
Brazil beans: 169.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 169.0 MMT in April
— projection of 175.0 MMT for 2025-26
Argentina wheat: 18.54 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 18.54 MMT in April
— projection of 20.0 MMT for 2025-26
Australia wheat: 34.11 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 34.11 MMT in April
— projection of 31.0 MMT for 2025-26
China wheat: 140.1 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 140.1 MMT in April
— projection of 142.0 MMT for 2025-26
Canada wheat: 34.96 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 34.96 MMT in April
— projection of 36.0 MMT for 2025-26
EU wheat: 122.12 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 121.02 MMT in April
— projection of 136.0 MMT for 2025-26
Russia wheat: 81.6 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 81.6 MMT in April
— projection of 83.0 MMT for 2025-26
Ukraine wheat: 23.4 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 23.4 MMT in April
— projection of 23.0 MMT for 2025-26
China corn: 294.92 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 294.92 MMT in April
— projection of 295.0 MMT for 2025-26
Argentina corn: 50.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 50.0 MMT in April
— projection of 53.0 MMT for 2025-26
Brazil corn: 130.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 126.0 MMT in April
— projection of 131.0 MMT for 2025-26
Ukraine corn: 26.8 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 26.8 MMT in April
— projection of 30.5 MMT for 2025-26
South Africa corn: 16.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 16.0 MMT in April
— projection of 16.5 MMT for 2025-26
China cotton: 32.0 mil. bales for 2024-25, compares with 30.75 mil. bales in April
— projection of 29.0 million bales for 2025-26