Last week on March 19th, the National Weather Service released updated 90-day seasonal outlooks covering April through June. The outlook for temperatures shows a majority of the lower 48 is expected to see warmer than average temperatures, with the highest chances for that development in the southwest. A notable change from last month’s outlook is the increased range of above average temperatures. The previous forecast saw the likelihood for above average temperatures weakening sharply in the Plains, while this month’s forecast shows expectations for warm temperatures to persist in the Midwest and mid-Atlantic states as well. This comes on the heels of a historic heatwave this weekend, where numerous daily temperature records were broken across the U.S.
The outlook for precipitation shows higher than average rainfall expectations strongly concentrated in the eastern seaboard, with some pockets along the Gulf Coast as well. Drier weather patterns are expected to dominate the northwest interior, with that dominance weakening slightly as it expands in to the central Rockies and Plains regions. Continued dryness in the west as wildfires have ravaged Nebraska and Oklahoma in recent weeks is cause for concern on forage availability and quality in the coming summer. If drought returns to the region, the much-anticipated rebuilding of the U.S. cattle herd may face further hurdles.
The seasonal drought outlook showed drought is likely to persist along the east coast but severity levels are expected to receive some potential downgrade due to the precipitation expected. Portions of the eastern corn belt are expected to receive continued drought relief, as soil moisture has been replenished in recent weeks and the long-term forecast sees the area as more insulated from the high heat, low precipitation patterns that are present further west. Little relief is expected for most of the southern U.S., excepting Florida and portions of the Gulf states.
