USDA is expected to make minor adjustments to its U.S. balance sheets in Wednesday’s Supply & Demand Report. Focus will be on shifts in usage forecasts for 2022-23, especially for corn as both exports and ethanol use could be lowered. The following pre-report estimates are from Reuters; Bloomberg for cotton.
Expectations for | |
Corn – billion bushels | |
2022-23 | |
Average est. | 1.266 |
Range | 1.200 – 1.335 |
USDA January | 1.242 |
USDA 2021-22 | 1.377 |
Soybeans – million bushels | |
2022-23 | |
Average est. | 211 |
Range | 176 - 230 |
USDA January | 210 |
USDA 2021-22 | 274 |
| |
Wheat – million bushels | |
2022-23 | |
Average est. | 576 |
Range | 557 - 612 |
USDA January | 567 |
USDA 2021-22 | 600 |
| |
Cotton – million bales | |
2022-23 | |
Average est. | 4.08 |
Range | 3.90 – 4.40 |
USDA January | 4.20 |
USDA 2021-22 | 3.75 |
The bigger focus for traders in Wednesday’s reports will be any changes to USDA’s global production forecasts and the impact that has on world ending stocks. Traders are expecting USDA to lower its Argentine corn and soybean crop forecasts, with little change anticipated for the Brazilian projections.
Expectations for Global Carryover | ||
Corn – MMT | ||
| 2021-22 | 2022-23 |
Average est. | NA | 294.71 |
Range | NA | 292.50 – 297.80 |
USDA January | 305.95 | 296.42 |
| ||
Soybeans – MMT | ||
| 2021-22 | 2022-23 |
Average est. | NA | 102.03 |
Range | NA | 100.00 – 105.50 |
USDA January | 98.22 | 103.52 |
| ||
Wheat – MMT | ||
| 2021-22 | 2022-23 |
Average est. | NA | 268.56 |
Range | NA | 266.00 – 270.20 |
USDA January | 276.82 | 268.39 |
| ||
Cotton – million bales | ||
| 2021-22 | 2022-23 |
Average est. | NA | 90.06 |
Range | NA | 89.20 – 91.00 |
USDA January | 85.34 | 89.93 |