Good morning!
Grain prices weaker overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was down 2 cents, November soybeans were off 5 cents and December winter wheat futures were 2 1/2 to 4 cents lower. Corn and soybeans are seeing some corrective selling pressure to start the trading week, following good gains posted Friday. Winter wheat futures are seeing some more technical selling pressure amid firmly bearish near-term charts. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index up a bit. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $63.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.29 percent.
Annual Pro Farmer Crop Tour kicks off today… Our annual Pro Farmer Crop Tour is this week. Look for daily updates from crop scouts and state results each evening at 8:00 p.m. CDT. Our final yields will be released this Friday at 1:30 p.m. CDT. We will produce our daily newsletters, though our afternoon “Crops Analysis” and “Livestock Analysis” will be replaced with an extended version of “After the Bell” all next week.
Heat wave still gripping the Midwest… Pro Farmer crop scouts will get a steamy start to this year’s tour. The National Weather Service reports conditions will remain very hot and muggy over portions of the Midwest, southern Plains, and mid/lower Mississippi Valley through the early part of this week. Heat advisories cover much of the region as heat indices top out in the 105-110 degree range in some areas. In addition, lows in the mid-to-upper 70s will bring little relief from the heat overnight. There are also rounds of thunderstorms with a flash flood threat for portions of the Midwest and a severe weather threat for the central/northern Plains today. Another round of storms in the Midwest is expected later in the afternoon/evening hours today. Meantime, World Weather Inc. reports the eastern U.S. Midwest will dry out over the next 10 days, with limited rainfall likely. Michigan, Ohio, Indiana and northern Kentucky will be in the driest region. After today, temperatures will be seasonable most of this week and then cooler than usual next week, “which may help slow the onset of crop moisture stress.” U.S. soil moisture and crop conditions are still rated well in the upper Midwest and eastern Dakotas, with little change likely. Timely rain is expected in much of that region and other areas in the central and southwestern Corn Belt during the next two weeks. “That should preserve production potential in these crop areas, especially when considering a cooler-than-usual temperature bias during the weekend and next week” said World Weather.
Trump, Ukraine’s Zelenskiy meet in Washington today… Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and his European allies are set to meet with President Trump in Washington, D.C. today. They are anxious to find out what Trump committed to at his summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin last Friday “and are apprehensive that he’ll force Kyiv into making unpalatable concessions,” reported Bloomberg. Trump will host Zelenskiy and several European leaders to set out terms for a potential peace deal, with the U.S. expected to focus on territorial concessions demanded by Russia, and Kyiv seeking to pin down possible security guarantees. Trump told leaders he’s open to U.S. involvement in guarantees for Ukraine’s security and wants to reach a deal quickly, with the goal of holding a Putin-Zelenskiy meeting within a week, a timeline that many Europeans regard as too aggressive.
Jackson Hole Fed symposium later this week… The Kansas City Federal Reserve’s annual Economic Policy Symposium begins Thursday evening in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to unveil the Fed’s new policy framework. Powell’s speech could give the marketplace a new update on how much support there is to lower U.S. interest rates in September. Fed officials have become divided on when to resume rate cuts.
China’s central bank won’t be aggressive on easing its monetary policy… The People’s Bank of China says it’s holding back from aggressively easing its monetary policy with moves such as interest-rate cuts, even though the economy in July posted its worst month so far this year. China’s central bank pledged to “thoroughly” enact its “moderately loose” monetary policy while highlighting targeted support to the economy. The remarks were in a quarterly report published late Friday and followed disappointing July statistics that showed evidence of weakening domestic demand.
U.S.-India trade talks reportedly on hold… Discussions on a proposed U.S.-India trade deal have been delayed after a planned visit by U.S. negotiators to New Delhi on August 25–29 was called off, according to Reuters. The move dashed hopes of easing new U.S. tariffs on Indian goods set to take effect August 27. The U.S. embassy reportedly said it had no further details, noting that talks are led by the U.S. Trade Representative. Earlier this month, President Trump imposed an extra 25% tariff on Indian goods over New Delhi’s continued imports of Russian crude oil, pushing some duties to as high as 50%—among the steepest on any U.S. partner.
Bullish NOPA crush report… Friday’s bullish National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) monthly crush report should give the soybean market some price support early this week. The U.S. soybean crush rose to a six-month high in July and exceeded most trade expectations. NOPA members crushed 195.699 million bushels last month, up 5.6% from the 185.270 million bushels in June and up 7% from a crush of 182.881 million bushels one year ago. It was the largest July crush ever reported by NOPA and the fifth-largest for any month on record, NOPA data showed.
China extends probe into EU dairy imports… China will extend its investigation into dairy imports from the European Union for another six months, delaying a decision as tensions linger between the two trade partners, according to a statement released by China’s commerce ministry. The dairy import investigation, launched in August of 2024, has now been extended until Feb. 21, 2026, due to the “complexity of the case,” the commerce ministry said. China’s decision to delay any potential trade measures on EU dairy products comes as its ties with the EU remain strained. The EU had launched its own investigations into Chinese subsidies across a range of sectors earlier in 2024.
Malaysian palm oil prices hit 5.5-month high… Malaysian palm oil futures rose above MYR 4,580 per MT, extending solid gains from the Friday session and hitting their highest level in 5 1/2 months. A weaker ringgit and higher palm olein prices on the Dalian exchange boosted sentiment. Meanwhile, signs of robust exports mounted, with cargo surveyors noting shipments rose between 6.5% and 21.3% from a month earlier in the first 15 days of August. In top buyer India, demand is set to recover in August and September as buyers stock up ahead of the mid-October Diwali festival.
Bull market runs in cattle futures still have legs… Friday’s technically bullish weekly high close in August live and feeder cattle futures again showed the bulls’ keen resilience after last Thursday’s sharp losses. However, the choppy, more volatile cattle futures trading action at higher price levels recently is one technically bearish warning signal of topping processes. Still, cash cattle and beef market fundamentals are overall bullish. Live cattle futures’ discounts to the cash market have limited selling interest recently. Rising wholesale boxed beef values last week remind of the tight beef supplies as retailers look to secure beef supplies for Labor Day holiday features. Cash cattle trading turned active late last week, with USDA at midday Friday reporting steers fetched an average price of $242.64 and heifers averaged $242.59.
Lean hog bulls lose some steam… Friday’s price action in lean hog futures saw some corrective buying following two days of selling pressure. A price uptrend remains in place on the daily bar chart for October lean hogs, but the bulls need to show more power soon to keep it alive and to keep the speculative bears at bay. Hog futures prices this week will likely continue to be impacted, to at least some degree, by price action in the cattle futures markets. Cash hog and pork market fundamentals have deteriorated a bit. However, the latest CME lean hog index is up 5 cents to $109.83 as of Aug. 13. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote Friday was $109.67.
Today’s reports—Monday
--10:00 a.m. Weekly USDA export inspections
--2:00 pm Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: August 2025
--2:00 pm Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: August 2025
--3:00 pm Crop Progress