Over the weekend, Bloomberg reported China may be expressing interest in purchasing U.S. wheat. According to the article, grain importers in Asia were inquiring about both SRW and HRW wheat.
No specific numbers were given on purchases, and no confirmation from Beijing has been received so far. After the news on potential Chinese interest broke, Chicago December wheat ended Monday’s trading session with a 9 1/2 cent gain, reaching highs not seen since July, and Kansas City HRW December wheat gained 7 1/4 on the day as well.
Historically, China has not been a major importer of U.S. wheat. From 2000-2025, on average China accounted for only 3.5% of U.S. wheat exports each year. It’s been an up and down relationship over that time, reaching as high as 14% in 2013-2014, and as low as .03% in 2007-2008.
China typically favors Australia and Canada as sources of imported wheat. Australia is convenient due to lower freight costs compared to shipping all the way across the Pacific, and Canada has benefited from historical trade ties between the countries. With China also in an ongoing trade war with Canada, tariffing Canadian canola, it is also possible the country could look to pressure the Canadian government on that front by sourcing U.S. wheat.
So what does potential Chinese interest in U.S. wheat look like for this marketing year? Assuming China realizes their current production forecast, not much is likely this year unless it is intended as an olive branch in relations with the U.S.
With the marketing year nearly halfway complete now for wheat, assuming China bought half of their average imports over the last 10 years, it would result in 1.1 million metric tons of wheat, or a little under 5% of USDA’s current expectations of total U.S. wheat exports. Not a huge amount, but every uptick in demand helps when wheat prices have been trading in such low ranges as of late.
The most China has ever purchased from the U.S. in a single marketing year since 2000 is 4.21 million metric tons, and so far this marketing year (that we can confirm from USDA), they have purchased none. To boot, the Chinese wheat crop for 2025/2026 is forecast to be its second largest on record, down less than 1% from the record. With expectations of declining herd sizes as of late, the country’s domestic crop would likely satisfy most of its needs.