Farmer sentiment in May climbed to its highest level since May 2021 as the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer index reached 158, 10 points higher than April and 50 points above year-ago. Farmers were more optimistic about both current conditions and their expectations for the future, driven by a more optimistic view of U.S. agricultural export prospects, combined with a less negative view of tariffs’ impact on 2025 farm income than respondents provided in either March or April. The Current Conditions Index improved by five points to 146 and the Future Expectations Index jumped 12 points to 164.
To learn more about U.S. producers’ views on trade, they were asked if they “Strongly Disagree,” “Disagree,” “Agree,” or “Strongly Agree” with the following statement: “Free trade benefits agriculture and most other American industries.” In fall 2020, an average of 49% of respondents chose “Strongly Agree” with the free trade statement. This stands in sharp contrast to the results from this month’s survey, in which only 28% of respondents chose “Strongly Agree.”
Producers were asked about the expected impact of the tariff policy on their farms’ income in 2025. In March and April, 57% and 56% of respondents, respectively, said they expected tariffs to have a “Negative” or “Very Negative” impact on their farm’s income. In May, this percentage fell to 43%, while the percentage expecting “No Impact” rose to 30%, compared to 19% and 22% in March and April, respectively.
In what could be an emerging issue, one out of four crop and livestock producers who typically hire non-family members said the Trump administration policy to reduce immigration could increase their difficulty in hiring adequate labor for their farm operation.