From the Data Bunker | Emily Carolan—Day 3

Illinois made for a mixed bag of results, with a lower-than-expected corn yield while soybean pod counts were a record. Preliminary Iowa data is indicative of a big crop, though disease pressure could limit potential into the homestretch.

illinois corn crop tour 2013
illinois corn crop tour 2013

Day 3 of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour was full of surprises, records, and even more shocking non-records from Illinois and western Iowa. Scouts made 403 corn samples and 397 bean samples today as they made their way into the same state – Iowa. Tomorrow the two legs will end the tour together in Rochester, MN after scouting the remainder of Iowa and Minnesota. But first – the results from today!

Tonight, we released the tour yield results for Illinois and it may have been the largest surprise of the night. We found a corn yield of 199.57, which is down 2.24% vs. last year. Pre-tour speculation leaned towards a larger-than-last-year yield but after 206 samples in IL, they did not find the expected large crop. There was only one district that was up from last year, and that was District 2. This district was up 6.7% vs. last year but was down from the three-year average by 0.49%. Grain inches were the supporting factor, being the 2nd highest we’ve recorded in tour history, but came in with a very average ear count average. Scouts remarked on the tar spot presence and speculated it may be what takes the top end yield off the already lack-luster crop. There were many remarks from routes on the consistently underwhelming crop, but it is the most consistent crop we’ve been through on the eastern leg. We’ll need to see what happens with disease progression in the next three weeks.

Illinois beans recorded a record pod count coming in at 1,479.22. It was the state with the least amount of disease remarks. Scouts observed a very average moisture rating but it was the most mature crop we’ve sampled in tour history.

The western leg completed our tour through western Iowa crop districts 1, 4, & 7. Many records set, with all three districts recording new top yields – District 1: 197.90 (previous record 2015: 188.19), District 4: 207.25 (previous record 2021: 201.10) and District 7: 195.03 (previous record 2016: 191.87). All three districts were consistently high in ear count, grain inches, and kernel rows around. The records were broke, but it may be the largest yield to lose with the disease pressure scouts commented on. Southern rust was present in over half of the samples taken today with severity growing with every hot day that passes. The disease progression will need to stop in its tracks if the top end yield that was measured today is going to hold up to harvest.

Iowa district 7 bean pod count was also record-setting with 1,562.54 pods in a 3x3 area. This is up 14.37% over last year and up 24.66% vs. the 3 year average. This is not the highest pod count we’ve pulled in tour history – 2007 in District 9 of Iowa holds the record with 1,582.59 pods in a 3x3 area. Just like in corn, disease was present in the majority of samples taken – SDS being the strongest noted. A few scouts noted there were more fields with SDS than without on their routes through western Iowa today. Moisture and maturity are very comparable to previous years.

What scouts found today was clarification on what could be high yields this year, but they also found a crop with the biggest opportunity to lose. Through the years on tour, I don’t know if we’ve ever seen this wide-spread of yield limiting disease pressure. Tomorrow we’ll see if that continues through eastern Iowa and Minnesota for the final day on the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour.