Farmers and grain market participants will enjoy some partial illumination on Friday when USDA releases delayed November Crop Production and WASDE reports, the first since Sept. 12.
Markets have been operating in the dark since the end of September, with a mid-harvest government shutdown depriving participants of October production and global supply and demand estimates as well as much of the high-frequency data, including weekly export sales and crop conditions, that traders rely on.
The shutdown ended late Wednesday, but USDA had already announced on Oct. 31 that it would turn out the November Crop Production and WASDE reports on Nov. 14 (delayed from a previously scheduled Nov. 10). Needless to say, the data is almost certain to be the highlight of this trading week and is likely to set the market tone for next week as well in the grain market.
Here are the most important elements to watch when the reports are released at 11 a.m. CT.
Corn and soybean yields
Before the shutdown turned out the lights, USDA in September pegged the average U.S. corn yield at 186.7 bushels an acre, with soybeans at 53.5 bushels an acre. Analysts have continued to ratchet down expectations, particularly for corn, given late-season dryness and disease pressure.
A Reuters poll found analysts, on average, expect USDA on Friday to estimate a yield of 184.0 bu. per acre for corn and 53.1 bu. per acre for beans. Corn yields ranged from 181.7 to 186.0 bu. per acre while bean yields ranged from 51.7 to 54.0 bu. per acre.
At Pro Farmer, we’re sticking with the estimates we produced last month amid the shutdown for a yield of 182.7 and 53.0 bushels per acre, respectively, for corn and soybeans.
Ending stocks
Analyst estimates for ending stocks have been more volatile over the course of the shutdown, which is no surprise given the variables around demand. USDA published its September stocks report just a day before the shutdown began, which showed 2024-25 ending stocks exceeding expectations for corn, while coming in just below consensus on soybeans.
Despite the higher carry-in for corn, analysts expect 2025-26 ending stocks to total 2.136 billion bushels, just 26 million bushels higher than USDA’s September figure. The expected 257 million bushel cut to production would more than offset 2024-25 stocks coming 195 million bushels above expectations, indicating analysts expect demand to see a modest haircut from USDA’s September figures. Analysts’ guesses ranged from 1.944 billion to 2.47 billion bushels.
To be fair, USDA has lofty demand expectations for the 2025-26 crop year as the market has to sort through abundant supplies.
Analysts expect soybean ending stocks to total 304 million bushels, up from 300 million in September despite carry-in being 7 million bushels below expectations as reported in the USDA Grain Stocks report on Sept. 30. Guesses ranged a wide 187 million to 494 million bushels, reflecting a range of expectations around demand, as production is estimated to be just 34 million bushels below the September report. Most of that variance can be attributed to differing forecasts for exports, which USDA pegged at 1.685 billion bushels in September.
Our forecasts are for corn ending stocks at 2.1 billion, with beans at 250 million bushels.
South American production
In South America, soybean plantings in Brazil continue to trail the year-ago pace amid persistent dryness in east-central areas of the country. While this region is typically the last to plant soybeans, progress remains slower than average.
We expect minimal changes to South American production from USDA on Friday, but planting and growing conditions will be a marketplace focus over the next few months.
In September, USDA projected the Brazilian soybean crop at 175 million metric tons, while Conab and other private analysts have expectations of a slightly more robust crop of around 177 MMT. We wouldn’t be surprised to see a slight increase in Brazil’s soybean production on Friday, though late plantings and uncertainty around replanting efforts lean in favor of no changes from USDA’s September estimate.
First-corn plantings in Brazil, which account for around 20% of the country’s total corn output, are estimated to be three-quarters complete. But delayed soybean plantings have stirred some concern around the safrinha crop, as the second planting is known, which makes up the largest portion of Brazil’s corn production.
USDA projected 2025-26 Brazilian corn production at 131 MMT in September, well below Conab’s estimate of 138.2 MMT and private estimates of 140.0 MMT. Given the deviation, we wouldn’t be surprised to see USDA bump their Brazilian corn production estimate to close the gap a bit. However, given elevated safrinha production uncertainties, we don’t expect an increase that matches or exceeds Conab.
In Argentina, soybean plantings have just begun, though production prospects remain strong, due to above average precip over the past four months. USDA and the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange matched in their latest projections for the Argentine soybean crop at 48.5 MMT, while private analysts expect similar output. We expect no changes on Friday regarding Argentina’s 25-26 soybean production.
When it comes to corn, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange expects a record 58 MMT 2025-26 crop in Argentina, compared with USDA’s September estimate of 53 MMT. Look for a potential increase in Argentine corn production, with ample rain in recent weeks bolstering production prospects.
The latest Argentine 2025-26 wheat production estimates from the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange totaled 22 MMT, compared to USDA’s September production estimate of 19.5 MMT. Late-season frosts and storms in October and November have raised concerns around potential crop damage, especially in southern provinces, but no changes are expected to USDA’s Argentine wheat production estimate until the effects of these weather events are better understood.
How the market has tended to react to November reports
Over the last 10 years,on average, November WASDE reports have tended to induce price action to the downside for the major row crops.
December corn has closed higher the day after the WASDE, compared to the day before, 3 times, and lower 7 times. There is an average price movement of 10 1/4 cents in years with upward price movement, while downward swings have produced an average move of 7 ¼ cents.
Soybeans have had more volatile reactions to the report, but also saw 3 years that produced upward price action and 7 that produced declines over the past decade. The average movement of January soybean contracts is 24 cents on upward shifts, and 13 1/2 cents on years with downside movement.
Historically, November is not a highly influential report for the wheat markets due to the lack of major new production data for the U.S. Revisions to ending stocks and changes to export demand are typically more in focus.
December Chicago wheat has seen an average move of 12 1/2 cents in years with positive price reactions to the WASDE, and a decline of 11 1/2 cents in years with negative price reactions. The next major USDA report for U.S. wheat supplies will come in January, where U.S. seedings will come into focus.
December cotton is generally unbiased to the report over the last decade, with prices increasing and decreasing 5 times each. Upside price movement averaged 114 points, and downside price movement averaged 86.2 points. Although changes to U.S. yield are possible in this report, they are relatively minor compared to changes in the December report, limiting volatility somewhat.