The weather outlook for 2026 is one of “cautious optimism.” While there is less immediate concern compared to the start of 2025, Matt Reardon, senior atmospheric scientist for Nutrien Ag Solutions, says the “spring predictability horizon” remains a factor where conditions could still shift.
El Niño and La Niña are the two opposing phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. This cycle describes the fluctuations in temperature between the ocean and atmosphere in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
“That gives us some sense of where things might tilt weather-wise, particularly in winter,” Reardon says. “In summer, there are some correlations, too.”
For many U.S. farmers, El Niño is often welcomed because it can bring increased precipitation to major growing regions, though it can also cause flooding in some areas. Meanwhile, La Niña is frequently associated with increased drought risk in the Southern Plains and Mid-South, which can lead to yield-robbing conditions if the pattern persists into the summer.
“We tend to root for El Niño, particularly in North America, as it tends to be beneficial for our growing regions with a little more precipitation,” Reardon says. “But those correlations are very far from a home run. We’re talking just a slight lean in that direction.”
He says the forecast predicts fading out of La Niña pretty quickly in spring and heading toward an El Niño, potentially by summer.
What Can Farmers Expect This Spring?
“What I’m looking at as we head toward both spring planting then summertime heat and real drought risk in June and July is that one sea surface temperature is closer to home in the Northeast Pacific,” he says. “We found, especially this decade, that as those sea surface temperatures go, our season tends to go.”
Last year, with all the drought concerns going into 2025 growing season, water temperatures in the Northeast Pacific stayed warm – actually record warm.
“We had a great growing season for the most part with plenty of moisture, if not too much, in some areas,” Reardon says. “In 2023, those water temperatures stayed a little bit cooler, and we had more drought risk.”
Reardon admits he’s learned that “cautious optimism about where things are headed” is often helpful when determining weather expectations.
As he looks toward 2026, he sees a similar start to 2014, which was a huge bumper crop year.
“But things can change,” Reardon adds. “There’s that spring predictability horizon we’ve got to leap over here.”
Is Drought Likely in 2026?
One of his concerns is that the latest USDA Drought Monitor shows some overwinter drought, which he says isn’t uncommon.
“We’ve seen a lot of that this decade. Spring rains can quickly make up for a lot of that,” Reardon says.
On Feb. 9, the Southern Plains saw a lot of grass fires. He says some of those were prescribed burns, but winds will be picking up again over the next 10 days.
“We are keeping an eye on the Southern Plains,” Reardon says. “They are getting some rain over the next seven days, but that’s an area that’s so prone to drought, especially in spring. If we see it build there and then try to leach over to Little Rock or Nashville, that can start to become a concern.”
In big yield-robbing drought years, it often flares in the Mid-South or even the Southeast over into the southern plains, first in April or May, and then tends to spread north.
“That’s a common behavior of some of these big concerning years of the past like 2006 or 2012, so we are keeping an eye on that right now,” he says. “But the good news is, in the next 10 days, we are going to get some moisture into the ground.”