Market Snapshot | General pressure ahead of USDA

Corn is 3 to 4 cents lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures are weaker for the third straight session as traders pause ahead of USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks Report at 11 a.m. CT.
• History shows USDA can make surprising and market-moving adjustments to its grain stocks forecast. A Reuters survey of analysts shows the average estimate for Sept. 1 corn stocks at 1.337 billion bu., which would be a four-year low and down 24% from a year earlier but above USDA’s September ending stocks estimate of 1.325 billion bu. in the September WASDE Report.
• USDA rated the corn crop as 66% “good” to “excellent” and 10% “poor” to “very poor” as of Sept. 28, unchanged from last week. On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop declined .4 points to 369.9 but remains 3.9 points ahead of year ago. Meanwhile, USDA reported harvest was 18% complete, one point behind the five-year average.
• Argentina’s 2025-26 corn production is estimated at 58 MMT, up from 49 MMT during the previous harvest season, according to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange.
• December corn futures continue to face pressure from the 20-, 10-, and 100-day moving averages, layered from $4.22 1/4 to $4.24 1/2, while support lies at $4.17 and is backed by the 40-day moving average.

Soybeans are mostly 6 to 7 cents lower, while soymeal is $1.00 lower. Soyoil is around 20 points lower.

• Soybeans have dipped out of the recent sideways range amid technical selling.
• USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks Report is expected to show Sept. 1 soybean stocks at 323 million bu., according to a Reuters poll. If realized, it would be down 5.6% from year ago and from USDA’s ending stocks estimate in its September WASDE Report.
• USDA rated the soybean crop as 62% “good” to “excellent,” up a point from last week, and 11% “poor” to “very poor,” which was down a point from last week. On our CCI, the soybean crop increased 1.3 points to 359.1 but remains 5.8 points below year-ago. Meanwhile, USDA estimated soybean harvest to be 19% complete, up 10 percentage points on the week, but still slightly behind the five-year average of 20%.
• The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimates Argentina’s soybean production for 2025-26 will reach 48.5 MMT, down from 50.3 MMT in 2024-25.
• November soybeans have edged to the lowest level since mid-August, with support now serving at $10.02 1/4 and the psychological $10.00 level. Initial resistance is at $10.10 and is backed by the 10, 20-, 200-, 40-, and 100-day moving averages.

Wheat futures are mostly a penny to 4 cents lower.

• SRW wheat futures are edging lower amid technical pressure despite support from a weaker U.S. dollar.
• Analysts expect USDA to peg Sept. 1 wheat stocks at 2.043 billion bu., which would be up 2.6% from year ago and would represent the largest Sept. 1 wheat stocks figures since 2020. USDA will also release final 2024-25 wheat production estimates today.
• USDA reported the winter wheat crop was 34% planted as of Sept. 28, up 14 points on the week, but still behind the five-year average of 36%. Emergence was estimated at 13%.
• The Buenos Aires Grains exchange estimates Argentina’s 2025-26 wheat production at 22 MMT, up from its previous estimate of 20.5 MMT.
• Ukrainian farmers have sown 2.5 million hectares of winter crops for the 2026 harvest as of September 30, including 1.4 million hectares of wheat, the economy ministry said earlier today.
• December SRW futures remain limited by the 10-, 20- and 40-day moving averages, layered from $5.20 1/2 to $5.25 1/4. Initial support lies at $5.13 3/4, which is backed by the Sept. 23 low of $5.07 1/4.

Live cattle are modestly weaker, while feeders are moderately firmer at midsession.

• Nearby live cattle have rebounded from earlier lows, though technical resistance is keeping buyers at bay.
• Last week’s average cash trade was $232.65, down $4.86 from the week prior.
• Boxed beef values continued to slide on Monday, with Choice down 75 cents to $370.68, while Select dipped $3.55 to $348.89. Movement totaled 117 loads.
• December live cattle have tested support at $235.46 and $232.01, with additional support at $230.92. Resistance stems from the 40-, 10- and 20-day moving averages, layered from $234.975 to $235.47.

Hog futures are lower at midmorning.

• Nearby lean hogs are correctively weaker, with cash and wholesale pressure also weighing on futures.
• The CME lean hog index is down a nickel to $104.78 as of Sept. 26.
• The pork cutout value slid $1.30 on Monday to $112.22, led by losses in primal bellies. Movement totaled 275.0 loads.
• December lean hogs gapped lower at the open but continue to find support around $89.93, which is backed by the 10- and 20-day moving averages. Initial resistance stands at $90.69 and is backed by last week’s high of $91.525.