Market Snapshot | September 29, 2022

Corn futures are mostly firmer in quiet, two-sided trading at midsession.

Corn futures are holding in narrow ranges as traders watch reports on Russia/Ukraine and the U.S. harvest. A pullback in the U.S. dollar is providing mild support
USDA reported net U.S. corn sales of 512,000 MT for the week ended Sept. 22, up from 182,300 MT the previous week but within trade expectations ranging from 250,000 to 800,000 MT. U.S. export commitments are running 48.7% behind year-ago levels, narrower than 50% behind last week.
Tropical Storm Ian should not impact corn, soybeans or groundnuts much, but the Carolinas and Virginia will be impacted with only some heavy rain and local flooding Friday into Sunday, World Weather said. Freezes this morning in the northern U.S. Great Lakes region ended the growing season in several areas and may have caused some minor negative impacts on immature crops.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will host a signing ceremony at the Kremlin on Friday to incorporate four Ukrainian regions into Russia, a major step towards formally annexing around 15% of Ukraine.
December corn reached $6.76 3/4, just under 10- and 20-day moving average resistance around $6.77. The 100-day moving average marks initial support at $6.63 1/2.

Soybean futures are firmer in a corrective recovering following Wednesday’s drop to three-week lows. Modest advances in crude oil are also supporting soybeans.
USDA reported net weekly U.S. soybean sales totaled 1.003 MMT during the week ended Sept. 22, more than double the previous week’s 446,400 MT total and topping expectations ranging from 250,000 to 850,000 MT. Top buyers included China (548,700 MT, including 132,000 MT switched from “unknown destinations”).
Malaysian palm oil rose 3.6% after tumbling to a 20-month low the previous session.
November soybeans pushed back above previous trendline support around $14.09 and moved briefly above the 50-day moving average at $14.19 3/4 before trimming gains. Wednesday’s low at $13.90 3/4 marks initial support.

Winter wheat futures erased overnight gains and turned modestly lower, though concerns over possible supply disruptions in the Black Sea region remain supportive.
Net weekly U.S. wheat sales totaled 279,800 MT, up from 183,500 MT the previous week and within expectations ranging from 175,000 to 500,000 MT. Export commitments are running 3.5% behind a year-ago, compared to 3.5% ahead last week.
Taiwan purchased 51,800 MT of U.S. milling wheat. Japan purchased 61,800 MT of milling wheat in its weekly tender, including 28,550 MT U.S. and 33,250 MT Canadian. Iraq tendered to buy a nominal 50,000 MT of milling wheat from unspecified origins.
December SRW wheat overnight reached $9.14 1/2, the highest intraday price in a week, before retreating. Initial resistance is seen at the 20-day moving average of $9.17 1/4 and last week’s high at $9.22 1/2.

Live cattle and feeder cattle are firmer at midmorning.

Live cattle futures rebounded modestly from an initial drop to two-month lows. Pessimism over the cash market is limiting buying interest.
Some light cash cattle trade was reported Wednesday at roughly steady prices in the Southern Plains, though even if packers are short on near-term needs or futures recover, it appears unlikely cash cattle prices will firm this week.
Slumping wholesale beef is also weighing on futures. Choice beef cutout values fell 88 cents Wednesday to $247.44, an eight-month low. Movement was a strong 165 loads.
USDA reported net weekly U.S. sales of 21,500 MT for 2022, primarily for South Korea (7,300 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), China (6,000 MT, including decreases of 100 MT) and Japan (3,500 MT).
December live cattle fell as low as $145.575, the contract’s lowest intraday price since July 18, before modestly rebounding.

Hog futures are moderately higher.

Lean hog futures are posting a firm corrective rebound from sharp declines over the past week as traders await USDA’s quarterly herd update after today’s close.
Analysts expect USDA’s Hogs & Pigs Report this afternoon to show the U.S. hog herd contracted 0.8% from year-ago, which would place the Sept. 1 inventory at around 74.3 million head. The market hog inventory is expected to be 0.9% smaller and the breeding herd 0.4% smaller than year-ago – both would be the lowest levels since 2017.
The CME lean hog index fell 81 cents to $95.60, its sixth drop in the last seven days.
Pork cutout values rose $1.76 Wednesday to $100.77, still near a four-month low.
December hogs rose as high as $77.925 after dropping Wednesday to $75.325, the contract’s lowest intraday price since December.

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