Market Snapshot | October 4, 2022

Corn futures rose for a third straight session after USDA’s harvest progress update fell short of trade expectations and concerns lingered over disruptions of Ukrainian supplies.
Outside markets are highly supportive amid a broad-based risk-on movement, including strong gains in crude oil and sharp losses in the U.S. dollar index.
USDA late Monday reported 20% of the U.S. corn crop was harvested as of Sunday, up from 12% a week earlier but slightly behind the 22% average for that date the past five years. Progress also fell short of analysts’ expectations to harvest to be about 22% finished.
Two more weeks of mostly favorable harvest weather will occur with one round of organized rain Oct. 11-13 and a few showers on occasion that will favor the northwestern Corn Belt through the Great Lakes region, World Weather said.
Russia’s grain production is set to grow by about 5 MMT a year thanks to its incorporation of four Ukrainian territories, Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev said. “Considering the arable land that exists there, I think at least 5 MMT of grain will be added to the Russian savings box,” according to TASS.
December corn overnight fell as low as $6.76 1/2, about two cents above support drawn from a trendline from the July low, before rebounding to $6.91 1/2.

Soybeans futures climbed with support from strength in corn and in crude oil, which is up nearly $3.
USDA said the U.S. soybean crop was 22% harvested as of Sunday, up from 8% a week earlier but behind the 25% five-year average. The pace topped analysts’ expectations averaging 20%. The crop was rated 55% “good” to “excellent,” unchanged from last week.
Indonesia may extend an export levy waiver on the edible oil to the end of this year, its chief economic minister said. Indonesia waived levies imposed on exports of palm oil products starting in mid-July to help reduce supplies that accumulated after a three-week export ban in late April.
Malaysian palm oil futures surged 5.5% to a one-week high as crude oil jumped to near a two-week high.
November soybeans reached $13.95 on today’s corrective rebound, though still in the three-week downtrend.

SRW wheat erased overnight games but remains supported by concerns over supply disruptions in the Black Sea region.
USDA reported 40% of the winter wheat crop was planted as of Sunday, up from 31% the previous week but behind the 44% five-year average. Plantings also fell short of the 44% analysts expected.
HRW wheat areas in the central and southwestern Plains are advertised to get some rain over the next 10 days, “but this should not be the start of a trend change,” World Weather Inc. said. “Most of the precipitation is not likely to have a huge benefit to soil moisture, but there will be pockets of improved planting, emergence and establishment.”
SRW wheat futures have turned lower despite broad-based buying in commodities and a sharp pullback in the U.S. dollar index.

Live cattle and feeder cattle are weaker at midmorning.

Live cattle are under mild pressure from concerns over beef demand and ideas a recent cash rebounding will be short-lived. Traders are ignoring highly supportive outside markets.
USDA-reported live steers average $144.78 last week, down slightly from $144.94 the previous week. Traders expect generally steady cash trade again this week but expectations could increase if futures and wholesale beef prices build on Monday’s strength.
Choice beef cutout values rose $2.19 Monday to $245.94 on strong movement of 116 loads.
Feeder cattle are being pressure by strength in the corn market.

Hog futures are weaker, led by the December contract.

Lean hog futures found little followthrough buying Monday’s firm close and faded under pressure from weak cash fundamentals.
The CME lean hog index is down 58 cents to 94.33, the lowest since February. The seasonal decline in the index has been persistent, but there haven’t been any days with major losses. October hog futures finished Monday $5.555 below today’s cash index quote, suggesting traders anticipate the price decline to persist.
Pork cutout values rose $2.34 Monday from an eight-month low at the end of last week to $99.93 December lean hogs rose $1.50 Monday to $77.725.
Traders are ignoring strong risk-on trade in many of the other commodity markets and equities.

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