Market Snapshot | October 10, 2022

Corn futures are 15 to 20 cents higher at midsession.

• Corn futures broke above resistance around $7 and rallied to the highest level since late June as Russian attacks on Ukraine fueled concerns over disruptions to grain shipments out of the Black Sea.
• Russia struck cities across Ukraine during rush hour Monday morning, killing civilians and destroying infrastructure in apparent revenge after Russian President Vladimir Putin declared an explosion and fire on the only bridge linking mainland Russia to Crimea to be a terrorist attack.
• United Nations aid chief Martin Griffiths today voiced confidence that a deal allowing Ukrainian Black Sea grains exports could be extended and even expanded despite an escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
• USDA’s monthly Crop Production update Wednesday will be one key to price direction this week. Based on a Reuters survey, USDA is expected to lower its U.S. corn crop estimate about 59 million bu. to 13.885 billion bu.
• USDA’s weekly export inspections and crop progress reports are delayed until Tuesday due to today’s Columbus Day holiday.
• December corn extended overnight gains and pushed above the September high at $6.99 1/2, hitting $7.06 1/2, the contract’s highest intraday price since June 22.

Soybeans are 9 to 11 cents higher and soymeal is up nearly $1, while soyoil is slightly lower.

• Soybeans climbed to highs for the month on spillover support from rallying corn and wheat markets. Gains are being limited in part by an outlook for strong South American production.
• Brazil received scattered weekend rains from Mato Grosso through central and southern Goias and much of Mato Grosso do Sul, World Weather Inc. said. “Much of the early weekend was drier biased making the environment Friday through Sunday mostly ideal for fieldwork and crop development because of the mix of rain and sunshine
• Brazilian farmers have seeded an estimated 9.6% of the country’s expected soybean acreage, behind last year’s 10.1% pace as erratic weather disrupts fieldwork in some areas, Agrural said. The consultant still expects Brazil to harvest a record soybean crop above 150 MMT in 2022-23.
• USDA is expected to raise its U.S. soybean crop estimate about 3 million bu. to 4.381 billion bu., based on the Reuters survey.
• November soybeans reached $13.98 3/4, the contract’s highest intraday price since $14.25 3/4 on Sept. 30.

Wheat futures are up sharply, led by gains of more than 60 cents in HRW and SRW contracts.

• Winter wheat futures pushed above September highs and hit the highest levels since mid-July on escalating concerns over disruptions to global grain supplies.
• USDA will also release its monthly Supply and Demand Report Wednesday. Analysts on average expect USDA to lowest its estimated U.S. 2022-23 ending wheat stocks to 554 million bu. from 610 million bu. currently.
• Algeria tendered to buy a nominal 50,000 MT of optional origin soft milling wheat.
• December SRW wheat pushed above 100- and 200-day moving averages and rose as high as $9.49 1/2, the contract’s highest intraday price since $9.54 on July 11.

Cattle futures are lower at midmorning, led by declines of nearly $3 in feeder cattle.

• Feeder cattle futures are under heavy pressure from the corn market’s rally back above $7.
• December live cattle dropped to the lowest level in over a week as the escalating Russia/Ukraine conflict sent the U.S. dollar near a 20-year high and stoked concerns over the global economy.
• Further cash market strength may help limit live cattle futures declines, though trade likely won’t establish till later this week. USDA-reported live steers averaged $145.97 through Friday morning, up from the previous week's average of $144.78.
• Choice beef cutout values ended last week at $246.07, up $2.32 from a week earlier but still near an 18-month low of $243.75 posted Sept. 30.
• December live cattle fell as low as $146.725, the contract’s lowest intraday price since Sept. 29.

Hog futures are higher, led by strong gains in the December contract.

• Lean hog futures extended last week’s gains on stronger technicals and ideas the market have have overextended as recent sell-off.
• Cash fundamentals remain soft, with the CME lean hog index down 12 cents to $92.65 (as of Oct. 6), an eight-month low. October futures are trading above today’s cash index, suggesting traders sense a short-term rebound in the cash market is ahead.
• Wholesale pork continued to strengthen last week, with pork cutout values rising 13 cents to $101.54, up from $97.59 at the end of last week.
• China’s hog futures jumped today after a surge in demand during the week-long National Day holiday pushed prices higher.
• December lean hogs rose as high as $79.75, the contract’s highest intraday price since Sept. 27.