Corn is mostly a penny to 2 cents lower.
- Corn futures are firmer in corrective trade, with support from continued export demand and declining crop conditions.
- USDA reported daily sales of 122,947 MT to Mexico, of the total, 100,593 MT is for 2025-26 and 22,354 MT is for 2026-27.
- USDA rated the crop as 66% “good” to “excellent” and 10% “poor” to “very poor” as of Sept. 21. On the Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the crop declined 1.7 points to 370.3 but remains 4.3 points ahead of year ago. Meanwhile, corn harvest was estimated to be 11% complete, in-line with the five-year average.
- Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his U.S. corn yield forecast by 2.0 bushels this week to 182.0 bu. per acre and maintains a neutral to lower bias. Cordonnier pointed out, “early yields are disappointing as southern rust has caused more problems than originally anticipated.”
- Brazil’s first corn crop was 25% plantes as of late last week, compared to 26% last year, according to AgRural.
- December corn futures continue to face pressure from the 100-day moving average of $4.25 3/4, while the 20-day moving average of $4.20 1/4 serves as initial support.
Soybeans are mostly unchanged to a penny higher, while soymeal is around $2.00 lower. Soyoil is fractionally lower.
- Soybeans are correctively firmer in the wake of pressure amid a continued lack of new-crop purchases from China.
- Chinese buyers booked at least 10 cargoes of Argentine soybeans after Buenos Aires eliminated export taxes on agricultural products on Monday, dealing another setback to U.S. farmers already shut out of their top market.
- USDA rated the soybean crop as 61% “good” to “excellent” and 12% “poor” to “very poor” as of Sunday. On our CCI, the soybean crop slid 1.2 points from the previous week and is nearly 6.0 points below the same time a year ago. Soybean harvest was estimated at 9% complete.
- Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his U.S. soybean yield forecast by 0.5 bushels to 52.0 bu. per acre, maintaining a neutral to lower bias going forward. He noted drier conditions in the eastern and southern Midwest are a concern, especially amid warmer temperatures.
- November soybeans are trading within Monday’s lower range, with support layered at $10.05, $10.03 and the psychological $10.00 level. Resistance stems from the 40-, 200-, 100-, 10- and 20-day moving averages, layered from $10.27 1/4 to $10.36 1/4.
Winter wheat futures are mostly 4 to 8 cents higher, while HRS futures are a penny to 2 cents higher.
- SRW wheat futures have turned from earlier lows, though technical pressure is limiting buyer interest.
- USDA estimated 20% of the winter wheat crop was planted as of Sept. 21, up nine percentage points on the week, but three points behind the five-year average.
- Soft wheat exports from the European Union since the start of the 2025-26 season in July totaled 4.12 MMT by Sept. 21, down from 6.13 MMT a year earlier, according to data published by the European Commission earlier today.
- December SRW futures have edged to a fresh contract low, with support layered at $5.05, then at psychological support at $5.00. Initial resistance stands at the 10-, 20- and 40-day moving averages, layered from $5.22 1/4 to $5.27 3/4.
Live cattle are mixed, while feeders are higher at midsession.
- Nearby live cattle are taking back a portion of Monday’s gains in corrective trade.
- USDA said in a press release Sunday that is will soon be “incentivizing our great ranchers and driving a full-scale revitalization of the American beef industry. This is only the beginning, with many more announcements coming this week as USDA restores American strength, protects food security, and supports America’s ranchers and farmers.”
- Choice boxed beef edged 66 cents lower on Monday to $381.39, while Select rose $2.17 to $362.09. Movement totaled 108 loads.
- October live cattle are hovering within Monday’s upper range, limited by the previous session high of $237.90, which is backed by the Aug. 27 high of $242.075. The 20-day moving average of $235.09 is initial support.
Hog futures are higher at midmorning.
- Nearby lean hogs are firmer amid wholesale support, but are being limited by this week’s high.
- The CME lean hog index is down another 26 cents to $104.98.
- The pork cutout value rose $1.25 on Monday to $113.30. Movement totaled 269.8 loads.
- October lean hogs are trading inside Monday’s upper range, limited by the previous session high of $99.925. Initial support lies at $99.20 and is backed by the 10-day moving average of $94.36.