Corn is mostly 2 cents lower.
- Corn futures are facing pressure from crude oil weakness, though firming wheat futures are limiting seller interest.
- USDA rated the corn crop as 74% “good” to “excellent” as of Sunday, unchanged from the previous week. The “poor” to “very poor” rating rose one point to 6%. On the Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop improved 1.7 points to 385.1, which was 11.7 points above last year’s rating for the same period.
- AgRural reported 55% of the safrinha crop has been harvested as of last Thursday, which compares to 82% last year. Meanwhile, record corn yields in Mato Grosso led the agency to increase its Brazilian corn production estimate to 136.3 MMT, up 5.6 MMT from their previous estimate.
- The 20-day moving average of $4.05 continues to limit buyers in September futures, while initial support remains at $3.99 3/4.
Old-crop soybeans are around 3 cents lower, while new-crop is mostly a penny higher. Soymeal is $3.00 higher and soyoil is around 60 points lower.
- Soybeans are mixed, with meal strength and fading crop conditions lending support.
- USDA rated the soybean crop as 68% “good” to “excellent” as of Sunday, down two percentage points from last week, while the portion rated “poor” to “very poor” rose two points to 7%. On our CCI, the crop improved 0.7 points and was still one point ahead of year-ago.
- Japan’s chief negotiator met with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in Washington late Monday. Bloomberg said the two “had frank, in-depth discussions toward achieving a mutually beneficial agreement.
- “President Trump’s efforts to target China through its trading partners across global supply chains threatens to erode China’s economic growth and most of its exports to the U.S., according to Bloomberg Economics. “China has increasingly relied on third countries for the manufacturing of final products or components, a trend that accelerated following Trump’s first trade war and his imposition of higher restrictions on the world’s second-largest economy.”
- U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier today that he’ll meet his Chinese counterpart next week in Stockholm and discuss what is likely to be an extension of an August 12 deadline for a deal to avert sharply higher tariffs.
- Thailand is close to a trade agreement with the U.S. to lower a threatened 36% U.S. tariff on its exports ahead of the Aug. 1 U.S. trade-deal deadline, Bloomberg reports. Thailand’s finance minister expects trade talks to conclude within days.
- August soybean futures are being limited by the 20-day moving average, currently trading at $10.23 1/4, while support lies at $10.08 1/4 and $10.01 1/4.
Wheat futures are mostly a nickel to 8 cents higher.
- SRW wheat future are working higher, with support from U.S. dollar weakness.
- USDA rated the spring wheat crop as 52% “good” to “excellent,” down two points from last week, while the “poor” to “very poor” rating increased three points to 16%. On our CCI, the HRS crop declined 7.2 points on the week and trails year-ago by 33.4 points.
- USDA reported winter wheat harvest advanced 10 points to 73% complete, which is now one point ahead of the five-year average.
- Russia trimmed its forecast for the 2025 wheat harvest and 2025-26 wheat exports, according to Agriculture minister Oksana Lut. Wheat harvest is now estimated to be 88-90 MMT, down from the previous forecast of 90 MMT. Exports are now expected to total 43-45 MMT, down from 45 MMT.
- Argus Media estimates the French wheat crop will rise to 33.4 MMT, up 30% from last year.
- December SRW futures are holding a range between support at $5.60 1/2 and the 40-day moving average of $5.73 1/4.
Live cattle are mixed while feeders are moderately firmer at midsession.
- Nearby live cattle are modestly weaker amid profit-taking from Monday’s record high.
- USDA reported the average cash cattle trading price for last week was $237.78, up 57 cents from the week prior’s average. We look for near-steady cash cattle prices this week as packers have been reluctant to bid up for cattle supplies given cutting margins that are presently in the red.
- Wholesale beef edged lower on Monday, with Choice down $1.48 to $372.07 while Select fell $1.44 to $350.05. Movement was light at only 75 loads.
- August live cattle are trading within Monday’s upper range, with resistance at the new record high of $225.55, while initial support lies at $223.53.
Hog futures are mostly firmer at midmorning.
- Nearby lean hogs are firmer amid wholesale and cash fundamental support.
- The CME lean hog index is up another 27 cents to $108.20.
- Pork cutout jumped $1.73 on Monday to $119.52, amid gains in bellies and hams. Movement totaled 252.5 loads.
- August lean hogs are trading within Monday’s upper range, limited by resistance at $107.89, while the 20-day moving average of $107.12 serves up support.