Hogs
Price action: June lean hog futures closed $1.30 higher at $101.325, marking a $3.025 gain on the week.
5-day outlook: Hog futures ended the month on a high note, with June futures closing at the highest mark in over a month. The April highs are likely to continue to provide some technical headwinds, but underlying fundamentals continue to prove supportive. Hog futures strength late this week despite relatively bearish trade news was supportive for bulls, a sign that the market is at least somewhat being driven more by fundamentals than volatile outside markets. A break above the April high of $101.975 would be key for lean hog bulls, indicating a technical breakout with additional strength to follow suit. The downside is likely to be limited, especially considering persistent cash fundamental strength, but a move to the downside would have bulls seeking to hold key technical support at $98.65.
30-day outlook: The CME lean hog index posting strong gains late in the week was a big win for bulls. Waning strength early in the week led to some concerns the ongoing seasonal rally could see another pause, but strong pork cutout led to strength in the cash hog market. The CME lean hog index is up another 61 cents to $94.13 as of May 28 and the preliminary calculation puts the index up another 71 cents to $94.84 on Monday. Summer futures have recently begun building steeper premiums over the index, showing the shifting sentiment that should continue to favor the bulls over the course of the next month.
90-day outlook: As summer pork production hits its annual lows, USDA will release its quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report at the end of June. That should give some insight into how the hog herd has held up over the past quarter. Trade deals will also be key over the coming quarter, as trade agreements will be key in getting importers to return to the U.S. market. While China purchased some U.S. pork last week, this week they did not, showing the fluid nature of purchase agreements.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You have all corn-for-feed and soybean meal needs covered in the cash market through July.
Cattle
Price action: June live cattle fell 5 cents to $215.475, nearer the session low after hitting a more-than-two-week high early on. For the week, June live cattle fell 32 1/2 cents. August feeder cattle fell $1.10 to $298.825 and nearer the daily low after hitting a more-than-two-week high early on. On the week, August feeders fell $1.55.
5-day outlook: The cattle futures market bulls still had a decent week after starting the holiday-shortened week with solid losses. Some late-week risk aversion in the general marketplace did dent that cattle market bulls a bit. However, once again, cattle futures bulls have shown resilience when significant selling pressure develops. Trading in cattle futures next week will hinge in part on the daily level of risk appetite in the general marketplace. Live cattle futures discount to the cash cattle market should continue to keep a price floor under futures prices. USDA this morning reported U.S. beef export sales of 14,700 MT for 2025, up 20% from the previous week and 24% from the four-week average.
Cattle slaughter levels this week were poised to be record small, giving packers an edge in retailer negotiations, evidenced by a steady climb in wholesale values. Next week the feedlot operators will likely continue to have the advantage in cash cattle trade. However, lighter trade so far this week suggests packers have secured their short-term needs.
30-day outlook: Cash cattle and beef market fundamentals remain solid and more of the same is likely the next few weeks, amid peak outdoor grilling season. Packers raised cash cattle bids late this week, to meet retailer demand. USDA at midday today reported more active cash trading late this week, with steers averaging $228.53 and heifers averaging $227.10. Last week’s average cash cattle trading price was $226.97. The noon report today showed wholesale boxed beef values mixed, with Choice grade down 10 cents to $365.99, while Select rose $3.24 to $356.88. Movement at midday was light at 57 loads. The Choice-Select spread narrowed to $9.11.
90-day outlook: The record-setting bull run in cash cattle and cattle futures markets shows no early, significant clues of being near an end. For the cattle and beef markets, prices to continue to trek north, consumer attitudes will need to remain overall upbeat—keeping demand for beef at the meat counter stronger. This week’s report on the consumer confidence index from the Conference Board showed an unexpected sharp rise in May after five straight months of declines. Consumer confidence is a major fundamental element that impacts many markets, including livestock. Cattle market watchers need to pay extra close attention to the trajectory of the U.S. stock market in the coming weeks, as it will be a good gauge of overall U.S. consumer confidence.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You have all corn-for-feed and soybean meal needs covered in the cash market through July.