Hogs
Price action: December lean hogs fell 22 1/2 cents to $86.675 but closed near the session high after hitting a five-week low early on.
Fundamental analysis: More profit-taking pressure from the shorter-term speculative traders was featured in lean hog futures today. Today marked the fourth straight session of price losses, which suggests a market top is in place. Bulls are hoping lean hog futures’ discounts to the cash hog index will help to stop the bleeding. Cash and fresh pork fundamentals have been weakening. The latest CME lean hog index is down 47 cents at $104.26. Friday’s projected cash hog index is down another 56 cents at $103.70. Today’s national direct 5-day rolling average cash hog price quote is $101.82. The noon report today showed pork cutout value down 80 cents to $107.55, led by losses in picnics. Movement at midday was 163.27 loads.
Technical analysis: December lean hog futures have seen a 2.5-month-old price uptrend on the daily bar negated. A rare and bearish broadening pattern has formed on the daily bar chart, to also suggest a market top is in place. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close December futures prices above solid chart resistance at $90.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $84.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $87.05 and then at $88.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $85.575 and then at $85.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You should have all your soymeal needs covered through December in the cash market. For corn, you now have all needs through October covered in the cash market.
Cattle
Price action: December live cattle fell $1.00 to $233.50, near mid-range. November feeder cattle lost $4.85 to $352.75 and near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The live and feeder cattle futures markets today saw more profit-taking pressure and weak long liquidation from the shorter-term traders. Big drops in boxed beef prices at noon today also pressured futures.
More active cash cattle trading has been reported by USDA at midday today. Steers are averaging $230.08 and heifers $230.47. That’s down from last week’s USDA reported cash cattle trading average of $232.65. The noon report today showed wholesale boxed beef cutout values solidly down, with Choice-grade losing $5.37 to $363.10, while Select rose $2.36 to $344.53. Movement at midday was good at 82 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently $18.57.
Technical analysis: The live and feeder cattle futures bulls have faded recently to suggest major market tops are in place, as there are very strong chart resistance levels that lie above present prices. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close December futures above resistance at $240.00. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of $230.075. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $234.45 and then at Wednesday’s high of $236.45. First support is seen at this week’s low of $231.75 and then at $230.00.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close November futures prices above technical resistance at last week’s high of $363.775. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the September low of $342.125. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $356.20 and then at $360.00. First support is seen at last week’s low of $349.125 and then at $347.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through December. For corn, you have all needs through October covered in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional purchases if value prices continue.