Hogs
Price action: August lean hogs fell 17 1/2 cents to $108.525, nearer the session high.
Fundamental analysis: The lean hog futures market paused today but prices remain in an uptrend from the mid-July low. August hog futures’ discount to the CME cash hog index is limiting selling interest in futures.
The latest CME lean hog index is up another 33 cents to $110.28 as of July 24. Tuesday’s projected cash index price (for July 25) is up 4 cents at $110.32. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog quote today is $113.39. The noon report today showed fresh pork cutout value up $2.20 at $121.06, led by gains in bellies and hams. Movement at midday was 133.39 loads.
Producers are monitoring a severe heat wave presently in the Midwest and Southeast that is likely producing stress on their animals.
Technical analysis: Lean hog futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a fledgling uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close August prices above solid chart resistance at the contract high of $113.375. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $105.00. First resistance is seen at $109.00 and then at $110.00. First support is seen at $107.00 and then at last week’s low of $105.875.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through July, with half of your needs for August, September, October, November and December covered in cash. For corn, you have all needs through August covered in the cash market, with half of your needs for September and October covered in cash.
Cattle
Price action: August live cattle rose $1.40 to $227.875, nearer the session high and and hit another contract/record high. August feeder cattle rose $2.15 to $333.525, near mid-range and hit a contract/record high.
Fundamental analysis: The cattle futures bulls were out of the gate strong early today, following a price-friendly USDA monthly Cattle-on-Feed Report released Friday afternoon. Some profit-taking by the shorter-term futures traders then surfaced to push prices off their daily highs. Live cattle futures’ discount to the cash cattle market will continue to limit selling pressure in futures.
Cash cattle trading last week averaged $239.38, according to USDA, which compares to an average of $237.78 the week prior.
The noon report today showed boxed beef values higher, with Choice-grade up $1.13 to $367.81 and Select grade up $2.04 to $346.91. Movement was light at 30 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently $20.90.
World Weather Inc. today said livestock stress in the Plains “has been high recently due to very warm to hot temperatures and high humidity and this will continue early this week, followed by significant cooling that will provide relief for animals in the region.The change will be welcome and stress will be reduced.”
Technical analysis: Live and feeder cattle futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close August futures above resistance at $235.00. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $222.00. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of $228.85 and then at $230.00. First support is seen at $225.00 and then at last week’s low of $222.85.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close August futures prices above technical resistance at $340.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $320.00. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of $335.975 and then at $337.50. First support is seen at $330.00 and then at $328.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through July, with half of your needs for August, September, October, November and December covered in cash. For corn, you have all needs through August covered in the cash market, with half of your needs for September and October covered in cash.