Hogs
Price action: December lean hogs fell $1.75 to $84.35, near the daily low and hit a six-week-low.
Fundamental analysis: The lean hog futures market saw technical selling pressure today as the near-term chart posture for the market continues to deteriorate. Cash hog and pork market fundamentals are also eroding.
The latest CME lean hog index is down 72 cents at $100.70. Friday’s projected cash hog index is down another 62 cents at $100.08. Today’s national direct 5-day rolling average cash hog price quote is $97.84. The noon report today showed pork cutout value down $1.71 to $102.11, led by losses in bellies. Movement at midday was 167.80 loads.
Technical analysis: December lean hog futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close December futures prices above solid chart resistance at $88.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $82.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $86.10 and then at this week’s high of $87.80. First support is seen at today’s low of $84.30 and then at $83.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You should have all your soymeal needs covered through December in the cash market. For corn, you now have all needs through October covered in the cash market.
Cattle
Price action: December live cattle rose $1.025 to $239.90, near the daily high and hit a three-week high. November feeder cattle rose $5.225 to $374.05, near the daily high and hit another contract/record high today.
Fundamental analysis: The feeder cattle futures market remains on fire and has also prompted more modest gains in the live cattle futures. Historically tight supplies of cattle in the U.S. continue to drive upside price action in futures, despite some weakening in the cash cattle and beef markets the past couple weeks, although boxed beef prices have rebounded this week.
USDA today reported very light cash cattle trade taking place at an average of $230.64 for steers and $228.00 for heifers. Cash cattle trading last week averaged $230.76. That’s down $1.89 from the prior week’s average of $232.65. The noon report today showed wholesale boxed beef cutout values firmer, with Choice-grade up 50 cents to $366.66, while Select rose 66 cents to $345.90. Movement at midday was 67 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently $20.76.
Technical analysis: The live and feeder cattle futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, the feeder cattle futures market is now short-term overbought and due for a downside correction soon. Also, there are strong chart resistance levels that lie just above present prices for December live cattle. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close December futures above resistance at the contract high of $243.575. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of $230.075. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $240.425 and then at $241.35. First support is seen at $237.00 and then at $235.00.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close November futures prices above technical resistance at $380.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $360.00. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of $375.075 and then at $377.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $369.025 and then at Wednesday’s low of $364.85.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through December. For corn, you have all needs through October covered in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional purchases if value prices continue.