Hogs
Price action: August lean hogs rose 10 cents to $107.125, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The lean hog futures market is pausing late this week. Steep losses in the cattle futures markets today did squelch the hog market bulls. More strong selling in the cattle futures would likely continue to limit buying interest in hog futures.
The latest CME lean hog index price quote today is up 10 cents at $110.51. The projected cash index price for Friday is down 14 cents to $110.37. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote today is $112.68. The noon report today showed pork cutout value fell $1.51 to $114.49, led by a $14 loss in bellies. Movement at midday was 123.11 loads.
USDA reported U.S. pork export sales of 39,500 MT for 2025, up noticeably from the previous week and 85% from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: Lean hog futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a fledgling price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close August prices above solid chart resistance at $110.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $105.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $108.90 and then at $110.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $106.675 and then at $105.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through July, with half of your needs for August, September, October, November and December covered in cash. For corn, you have all needs through August covered in the cash market, with half of your needs for September and October covered in cash.
Cattle
Price action: August live cattle fell $5.30 to $227.775, nearer the session low. August feeder cattle lost $7.575 to $331.375, near the daily low after hitting another contract/record high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The cattle futures markets saw heavy profit-taking pressure today. The bulls may have finally run out of gas on their major bull runs. Strong follow-through selling pressure on Friday would better suggest such.
Cash cattle trading so far this week has been light, with USDA today reporting steer prices averaging $237.11, while heifers averaged $234.67 so far this week. The heavy selling in the futures markets today may give the packers the upper hand as cash negotiations continue this week.
The noon report today showed wholesale boxed beef cutout values firmer, with Choice up $1.45 to $363.44, while Select rose $1.04 to $341.95. Movement at midday was decent at 68 loads.
USDA today reported U.S. beef export sales of 8,500 MT for 2025, down 49% from the previous week and 30% from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: Live and feeder cattle futures bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, today’s big sell offs suggest the bulls may have run out of gas, at least temporarily, on the major bull moves. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close August futures above resistance at the contract high of $233.75. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $220.00. First resistance is seen at $230.00 and then at $233.75. First support is seen at $226.00 and then at $225.00.
Today’s big “key reversal” down in August feeders is one chart clue that a market top is in place. The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close August futures prices above technical resistance at today’s contract high of $340.625. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $325.00. First resistance is seen at $334.00 and then at $336.00. First support is seen at $330.00 and then at $328.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through July, with half of your needs for August, September, October, November and December covered in cash. For corn, you have all needs through August covered in the cash market, with half of your needs for September and October covered in cash.