Hogs
Price action: August lean hogs rose 87 1/2 cents to $107.35, near the session high.
Fundamental analysis: The lean hog futures market continues to rally from last week’s low, supported in part by cattle futures prices that are setting record highs. Lean hog futures discounts to the cash hog index continues to limit selling interest in futures. The latest CME lean hog index is up 30 cents to $107.93 as of July 17. Tuesday’s projected cash index price is up 27 cents at $108.20. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price is presently $110.35. The noon report today showed pork cutout value rose $2.05 to $119.84, led by gains in hams and bellies. Movement at midday was 156.33 loads.
Technical analysis: Lean hog futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have regained momentum. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close August prices above solid chart resistance at $110.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of $102.70. First resistance is seen at $108.00 and then at $109.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $105.875 and then at $105.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through July, with half of your needs for August, September, October, November and December covered in cash. For corn, you have all needs through August covered in the cash market, with half of your needs for September and October covered in cash.
Cattle
Price action: August live cattle rose $1.675 to $225.225, near the daily high and hit a contract/record high. August feeder cattle gained $3.60 to $327.60, near the session high and hit a contract/record high.
Fundamental analysis: The bull-market runs in the cattle futures markets roll on. Speculators continue to push the long side amid live cattle futures’ still-steep discounts to the cash cattle market that continue to limit selling interest in futures.
USDA’s reported average cash cattle trading price for last week is $237.78, up 57 cents from the week prior’s average. We look for near-steady cash cattle prices this week as packers have been reluctant to bid up for cattle supplies given cutting margins that are presently in the red. Outdoor grilling demand for beef also tends to back down a bit as mid- to late-summer temperatures rise.
The noon report today showed Choice-grade boxed beef value fell $1.42 to $372.13, while Select grade gained 4 cents to $351.53. Movement at midday was light at 30 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently $20.60.
Technical analysis: Live and feeder cattle futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and continue to show resilience even at historically elevated levels. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close August futures above resistance at $230.00. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $217.50. First resistance is seen at $226.00 and then at $227.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $222.85 and then at $221.00.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close August futures prices above technical resistance at $335.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $314.00. First resistance is seen at $328.00 and then at $329.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $323.45 and then at $320.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through July, with half of your needs for August, September, October, November and December covered in cash. For corn, you have all needs through August covered in the cash market, with half of your needs for September and October covered in cash.