Hogs
Price action: June lean hog futures closed 82.5 cents lower to $98.70 and settled near session lows.
Fundamental analysis: Lean hog futures fell under pressure again today, keeping the near-term downtrend intact as traders remain pessimistic over the demand outlook. Live cattle futures finally posted more than modest strength today as cash cattle trade picked up mid-week, pointing to another potential week of record prices, which failed to lend over much support to the hog market, surprising given record beef prices. We have been surprised by the weakness in hog prices as beef has been at record highs, especially considering weakening consumer confidence, as noted in last week’s survey by the University of Michigan. Some of that pessimism in hog prices are likely due to anticipated weaker exports amid ongoing tariff tiffs. China returned to the U.S. pork market as noted in today’s USDA export sales report. Export sales totaled 37,400 MT, which was up 52% from the previous week and 68% from the four-week average. China purchased 7,800 MT of that total, but still that had little effect on today’s trade. Ongoing strength in the CME lean hog index will eventually become difficult to ignore as premiums futures hold over the index shrink. The index is up another 49 cents to $92.34 as of May 20, the largest gain over the past week and a half. The preliminary calculation puts the index up another 41 cents to $92.75 tomorrow.
Technical analysis: June lean hog futures have closed lower for four out of the last five sessions but are overall trading sideways on the daily bar chart. Bulls are seeking to hold support at $98.30 on continued selling pressure while additional selling pressure would target support at $97.50. Bulls are seeking to reclaim resistance at $99.25 on a bounce, which is reinforced by resistance at the psychological $100.00 mark.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You have all corn-for-feed and soybean meal needs covered in the cash market through July.
Cattle
Price action: June live cattle rose $1.475 to $215.625, nearer the daily high. August feeder cattle rose $3.35 to $299.775 and nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The cattle futures markets bulls the past two sessions have shown they may not be done in this present record-setting bull run. Cash cattle and beef market fundamentals remain solid. After lighter trade at steady-to-weaker prices in the Southern Plains earlier this week, dressed prices in Nebraska averaged about $2.00 higher than last week on Wednesday. USDA today reported light steer and heifer trade so far this week, at around $229.40. The noon report today showed wholesale beef values continue to work higher as packers are becoming more focused on improving their margins. Choice beef rose 71 cents to $360.30, while Select rose 44 cents to $348.72. Movement at midday was 52 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently $11.58.
USDA this morning reported U.S. beef export sales of 12,300 MT for 2025, down 16% from the previous week but up 8% from the four-week average. Friday afternoon’s monthly USDA Cattle-on-Feed report is expected to favor the bullish camp by showing lower placements and lower marketings.
Technical analysis: Live and feeder cattle futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have regained momentum late this week. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close June futures above resistance at the contract high of $218.625. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $210.625. First resistance is seen at $217.00 and then at $218.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $214.375 and then at $213.00. The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close August futures prices above technical resistance at the contract high of $307.675. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $290.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $300.20 and then at $302.00. First support is seen at $297.00 and then at last week’s low of $295.10.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You have all corn-for-feed and soybean meal needs covered in the cash market through July.