Hogs
Price action: June lean hogs fell a dime to $98.175 and closed near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: Lean hog futures ended the day mixed as the market is caught between technical support and waning cash fundamentals. The market seems to be at an inflection point, evidenced by the varied tone among contracts today. Pork cutout has stalled near $96.00 and has seen little movement in price the last couple of days, providing minimal direction to the cash hog market. Cutout rose 15 cents to $96.76 this morning as bellies led the way higher, offsetting a $15.15 plunge in primal ribs. Movement was light this morning at 127.40 loads. Cutout struggling to build much momentum either way has led to stalling gains in the CME lean hog index. The index is up another 47 cents to $89.25 as of April 29, while the preliminary calculation puts the index up another 32 cents to $89.57. The index saw a similar period of stagnating strength late last week before building additional momentum earlier this week.
Technical analysis: June lean hogs were caught between 40-day moving average support and 10-day moving average resistance today in a choppy session. Bulls retain a slight technical advantage as a modest uptrend persists on the daily bar chart. Bulls are eyeing resistance at $98.70, the aforementioned 10-day moving average, before challenging the psychological $100.00 mark. Support comes in at $97.55, the 40-day, on continued selling pressure, with a break below that mark eyeing support at $96.75.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You should have all corn-for-feed needs covered in the cash market through May. You also have all soymeal needs covered in the cash market through May.
Cattle
Price action: June live cattle rose $1.25 to $209.65, nearer the session high. August feeder cattle fell 57 1/2 cents to $294.45, nearer the session low.
Fundamental analysis: The live cattle futures market saw strength today on still-solid cash market fundamentals, while feeder cattle futures saw some mild profit-taking pressure as both markets are not far below their contract/record highs.
USDA today reported cash cattle trading activity has picked up late this week, with steers and heifers averaging around $220.75 so far. Last week’s average cash trade was $216.32. Packer margins remain in the red but feedlots are winning out late this week because the packers need product to satisfy recent good consumer demand for beef. The noon report today showed wholesale boxed beef cutout values mixed, with Choice grade down $2.57 to $342.74. Select grade rose $2.52 to $324.54. The Choice-Select spread is presently $18.20. Movement at midday was decent at 71 loads.
USDA this morning reported U.S. beef export sales of 12,900 MT for 2025, up 25% from the previous week and up 6% from the four-week average.
Cattle futures traders will be closely watching Friday morning’s monthly U.S. jobs report. U.S. economic data released so far this week has been mostly downbeat, which if such continues could begin to dent consumer demand for beef at the meat counter.
Technical analysis: Live and feeder cattle futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close June futures above resistance at $215.00. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $204.00. First resistance is seen at the contract high of $211.00 and then at $212.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $208.00 and then at $207.00.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close August futures prices above technical resistance at $300.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $285.00. First resistance is seen at $295.00 and then at the contract high of $297.80. First support is seen at today’s low of $292.60 and then at $291.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You should have all corn-for-feed needs covered in the cash market through May. You also have all soymeal needs covered in the cash market through May.