Hogs
Price action: August lean hogs fell 27 1/2 cents to $108.20, nearer the daily low and hit a three-week high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The lean hog futures market today saw some mild profit taking after seeing a steady climb from the mid-July low. Technicals that are becoming more bullish and lean hog futures’ discount to cash hog index limited selling interest today. The latest CME lean hog index is up another 64 cents to $109.23 as of July 22. Friday’s projected CME cash index price is up 72 cents at $109.95. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote today is $113.33. The noon report today showed pork cutout up 47 cents to $117.71 and small gains across the board. Movement at midday was 151.56 loads. Pork packer margins are presently modest in the red.
USDA this morning reported U.S. pork export sales of 17,000 MT for 2025, down 1% from the previous week and 43% from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: Lean hog futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close August prices above solid chart resistance at the contract high of $113.375. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $105.00. First resistance is seen at $110.00 and then at $111.00. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $107.00 and then at this week’s low of $105.875.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through July, with half of your needs for August, September, October, November and December covered in cash. For corn, you have all needs through August covered in the cash market, with half of your needs for September and October covered in cash.
Cattle
Price action: August live cattle fell $1.225 to $225.80, near mid-range. August feeder cattle lost $2.625 to $328.90, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The cattle futures markets today saw routine profit-taking pressure after hitting contract/record highs on Wednesday.
Very light cash cattle trade has occurred so far this week, as expected ahead of Friday’s USDA cattle-on-feed report. The lighter trade sees steers so far fetching an average price of $231.88 and heifers averaging $230.90, according to USDA. The noon report today showed Choice-grade boxed beef cutout value up $1.57 to $369.09 and Select grade up $4.23 at $349.62. Movement at midday was 73 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently $19.47. Beef packer margins are still deeply in the red.
USDA this morning reported U.S. beef export sales of 16,700 MT for 2025, up 90% from the previous week and up 46% from the four-week average.
Friday’s monthly USDA cattle-on-feed report is expected to show cattle on feed as of July 1 at 99.2% of the level seen one year ago at the same time. Placements in June are seen at 98.0% of year-ago levels, with marketings in June seen at 96.4% from last year. This comes from a Reuters survey of analysts.
Technical analysis: Live and feeder cattle futures still bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close August futures above resistance at $230.00. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $220.00. First resistance is seen at the contract high of $227.40 and then at $229.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $222.85 and then at $221.00.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close August futures prices above technical resistance at $335.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $318.00. First resistance is seen at $330.00 and then at the contract high of $332.075. First support is seen at $325.00 and then at this week’s low of $323.45.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through July, with half of your needs for August, September, October, November and December covered in cash. For corn, you have all needs through August covered in the cash market, with half of your needs for September and October covered in cash.