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A wave of post-midterm relief and a plunge in crude oil prices sparked a rally for stocks on Wednesday but was unable to lift all boats across ag commodities (see market recap below). Still, what happens with crude oil could be particularly telling. President Donald Trump distanced himself from Tuesday’s historic midterm wipeout for Republicans but acknowledged the Iran war was likely a driver. In an X post, Vice President JD Vance reiterated the war’s unpopularity as he delivered his own post-mortem, writing: “The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.” With renewed U.S.-Iran talks under way and markets showing signs of easing nearby physical shortages, traders had a green light to sell crude, with December Brent falling 8.7% to $94.62 a barrel and December WTI down 8.3% to $88.12 – the lowest close for both since Aug. 31, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Of course, the war’s impact was felt by voters at the gas pump or, for farmers, in the diesel bill. “You can argue politics and morality all day long, but when Americans step into the voting booth, they mostly vote gasoline prices — and diesel too,” said Phil Flynn, energy analyst at Price Futures Group, in a Wednesday note.
Democrats made historic inroads in rural districts and key farm states. Iowa elected its first Democratic senator since 1998, while Adam Hamilton will be Kansas’ first Democratic senator since 1932. Frustration over diesel prices as well as high input costs and the continued squeeze on margins has been evident in surveys, including the monthly Purdue-CME Ag Economy Barometer.
The October reading, released Tuesday, showed some improvement in sentiment in October, rising to 126 from 123 in September. The current conditions measure rose by 16 points, but future expectations index dropped by 2 points. And high input costs remained the biggest concern, noted Purdue ag economists Michael Langemeier and Joana Colussi. The survey of 400 farmers was conducted between Oct. 12 and 16. Since July 2025, the survey has asked producers: “Would you say that things in the U.S. today are generally headed in the right direction or on the wrong track?” Notably, the percentage of farmers responding “right direction” fell below the 50% level for the first time in September, dropping to 48% from 51% the previous month. In October, it remained at 48%. The share had averaged more than 60% from July 2025 to June 2026.
Market recap: A sharp, upside reversal for the stock market, a plunge for crude oil and a weaker U.S. dollar in the wake of Tuesday’s midterm election results offered a risk-on vibe that helped lift corn and wheat futures but did nothing to aid soybean or livestock futures on Wednesday.
- January soybeans fell 11 ¾ cents to end at $12.02 ¼, hitting another 2.5-month low. December soybean meal rose $0.60 to $318.60, while December bean oil felt pressure from the crude selloff to drop 175 points to 63.53 cents – a six month low.
- December corn rose 1 3/4 cents to $4.44 1/4.
- December soft red winter wheat fell 1 ¼ cents to $5.98 ½.
- December hard red winter wheat shed 3 ½ cents to $6.32 ¾.
- December cotton rose 107 points to 78.11 cents, after hitting a four-month low early on.
- December live cattle lost $0.15 to $218.00, hitting another six-week low, while January feeders dropped $2.65 to $325.725.
- December lean hogs dropped $1.05 to $57.55, hitting yet another contract low.
Deere to close 2 Iowa plants… Deere & Co. on Wednesday announced it would phase out operations at two plants in Iowa, reports Eduardo Morales. Deere said it would phase out operations at its Ottumwa facility, with windrower production to relocate by the end of fiscal 2027 to its Des Moines Works, followed by a move for round-baler production by the end of fiscal 2028. The Hagie manufacturing plant in Clarion will see production of STS sprayers to its factory in Thibodeaux, La. The move comes after Deere earlier announced recalls of hundreds of workers from layoffs. Deere attributed the factory shutdowns to shifting customer demand and available manufacturing capacity.
Ammonia production jitters… AGF Nitrogen, Europe’s second-biggest ammonia and fertilizer maker, has halted some ammonia production lines and more could follow due to high natural gas prices and a slump in demand, CEO Petr Cingr told Reuters Surging natural gas prices have raised fears of possible plant shutdown. The fuel serves as a feedstock in ammonia and nitrogen-fertilizer production. The report said supply disruptions resulting from the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have driven up global prices for natural gas.
Diverging financial conditions… Lenders report continued pressure on farm profitability in 2026, with 75% of respondents saying profitability had tightened in their local agricultural economies, according to the annual survey by the American Bankers Association and Farmer Mac. Projected record government payments helped offset compressed margins, according to survey responses. Still, lenders estimate 40% of borrowers will not be profitable this year — an estimate that varied widely by region and sector concentration. Diverging profitability between the livestock and crop sectors resulted in markedly different lender perspectives in this year’s survey.
- “Agricultural borrowers are seeing better farm profitability than they expected a year ago, with support from government payments, but that doesn’t mean financial stress has disappeared,” says Ryan Lee, ABA’s research and economic policy manager. “Working capital remains under pressure, loan demand is rising and lenders continue to watch credit quality closely. The survey reflects both the resilience of farm borrowers and the challenges many producers still face heading into 2027.”
Monette seeks creditor protection extension… Monette Farms has asked an Alberta court to extend its creditor protection by 12 days, from Nov. 13 to Nov. 25, reports Margy Eckelkamp. This comes after the binding bid deadline moved from Oct. 15 to Nov. 3, and the end of the sale process moved from Nov. 30 to Dec. 4 at noon Mountain time. The reason: to “continue negotiations.” The filings do not say how many bids arrived so far, who bid, or at what price for the 19 real estate listings. Monette Farms entered court-supervised creditor protection after debt-driven expansion, falling crop yields, and high interest rates left its $900 million debt load unsustainable, prompting a sale process for its land and assets to repay lenders.
India’s biofuel ambitions dented… India’s drive to replace imported oil with domestically grown biofuel faces a setback as the lowest monsoon rainfall in more than a decade hits corn and sugarcane crops, Reuters reported, with New Delhi forced to prioritize food security over ethanol production. The proportion of ethanol in Indian petrol is poised to fall below the official 20% target in the supply year that began this month, the report said, citing industry insiders.
New rural job market indicators… The Kansas City Fed’s Center for Agriculture and the Economy on Wednesday introduced the quarterly Rural Labor Indicators to analyze employment, wages, and unemployment in farming-concentrated counties across the United States. Authors Jason P. Brown, Nate Kauffman, and Shu-Kuei X. Yang found that while agricultural counties experience slower baseline employment growth than urban areas, their labor markets are significantly less volatile during recessions. Furthermore, rising farm commodity prices drive down local unemployment and spur strong wage growth without inducing major overall job expansion.