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Livestock producers: Extend feed coverage... Corn futures are trading near their lowest levels since March and soymeal futures remain at long-term value prices. While there could be more near-term price pressure, we feel these value buys are too good to pass up. We advise livestock producers to extend corn-for-feed and soymeal coverage another month each in the cash market through June.
Trump rejects any pullback on China tariffs... President Donald Trump said he’s unwilling to preemptively lower tariffs on China in order to unlock more substantive negotiations with Beijing on trade. “No,” Trump said Wednesday when asked by a reporter if he is open to pulling back his 145% duties on Chinese imports to get China to the negotiating table. The president’s comments come ahead of a planned trade meeting between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer with their Chinese counterpart in Switzerland.
Fed leaves rates unchanged, cites rising risk of higher inflation and unemployment... The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 4.25% to 4.50%, as widely expected, but said risks of higher inflation and unemployment had risen. The economy overall has “continued to expand at a solid pace,” the Fed said in its policy statement, attributing a drop in first-quarter output to front-loading of imports that were record large ahead of tariffs. The Fed said the labor market remained “solid” and inflation was still “somewhat elevated,” but “uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further.”
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said officials are in no a hurry to adjust interest rates as “the current stance of monetary policy leaves us well positioned to respond in a timely way to potential economic developments... Until we know more about how this is going to settle out, and the economic implications for employment, inflation, I couldn’t confidently say I know what the appropriate path will be.” He said his “gut feeling is that uncertainty [regarding economic impacts from tariffs] is extremely high,” but noted the tariff shock hasn’t hit yet. As he has in the past, Powell noted the Fed would remain data dependent with its monetary policy decisions.
Brazilian soybean exports rise, corn shipments decline in April... Brazil exported 15.272 MMT of soybeans during April, according to official government data. That was up 592,000 MT from March and 584,000 MT from last year – a 4.0% increase from both. Through the first four months of 2025, Brazilian soybean exports totaled 37.449 MMT.
Brazilian corn exports slowed to 178,347 MT last month, down 692,950 MT (79.5%) from March but up 112,208 MT (170%) from last year. Through the first four months of this year, Brazil exported 2.482 MMT of corn.
WSJ urges Congress to overhaul SNAP by tightening work rules, sharing costs with states... In a sharply worded editorial (link), the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board throws its weight behind major reforms to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), arguing the system is “dysfunctional” and ripe for overhaul as part of House Republicans’ broader budget push.
While emphasizing that Republicans “aren’t indifferent to whether children and the poor have enough to eat,” the piece criticizes SNAP for drifting far from its original purpose of offering temporary support. With over 41 million Americans enrolled, the program has become “a contributor to one of America’s most pressing social ailments: Prime-age men attenuated from work.”
Key points:
- Work requirements evaded: Though federal rules require able-bodied adults without dependents to work 20 hours a week or lose benefits, “a mere 16%” meet that threshold, and “only 28%” show earned income, citing EPIC and government data.
- Waivers exploited: States gerrymander jobless zones to win waivers from these requirements. “Nearly 40%” of the target population lives in such waived areas.
- Call for stronger mandates: The board calls for applying the 20-hour rule more broadly, even to parents with school-aged children. Job training or volunteering would also qualify.
- Cost-sharing with states: SNAP is federally funded but state-run, creating a perverse incentive to inflate rolls. The editorial backs phasing in a 25% to 50% state match, which EPIC says could save $250 billion over a decade.
- Fraud and inefficiency: With USDA pegging improper payments at over 10%, the editorial says tighter oversight is overdue.
“Congress can crack down on the waiver offenses and make work a centerpiece of the program,” the board writes, invoking the bipartisan success of the 1990s welfare reforms. “If Republicans can’t defend these basic principles of self-government, they have bigger problems than passing a tax and spending bill.”
Bunge’s Q1 profits aided by front-loaded demand... Grain trader and processor Bunge Global said its first-quarter profit fell less than expected as rising global trade tensions prompted consumers to secure goods ahead of tariff-fueled price increases, increasing demand. However, weak oilseed crush margins in North America and Argentina and lower returns in ocean freight operations dampened earnings as the company turned in its lowest first-quarter result in five years.
“The first quarter exceeded our expectations, driven in part by some pull forward of activity from Q2 into Q1,” said CEO Greg Heckman. “Shifting trade dynamics, including tariffs and regulatory uncertainty, prompted some farmers and consumers to act ahead of potential changes.”
Bessent warns U.S. nearing debt-limit ‘warning track,’ but timeline unclear... Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told lawmakers Tuesday the U.S. is “on the warning track” toward hitting the federal debt ceiling, though he declined to provide a specific estimate for the so-called “X-date.” Speaking before the House Appropriations Committee, Bessent said Treasury is still assessing recent tax revenues and will inform Congress when it believes the government risks running out of cash. The debt ceiling was reinstated in January, and Treasury has since relied on special measures to remain under the cap.
Wall Street analysts generally project the government could face a crunch between August and October.
Despite the uncertainty, Bessent stressed the U.S. will not default and promised Treasury would not rely on “gimmicks” to circumvent the limit.