Livestock producers: Extend feed coverage... We advise livestock producers to cover through December for corn in the cash market. Corn futures are sharply below the early September highs and prices have found support after plunging following last Friday’s reports. Underlying demand and the potential for cuts to USDA’s production figure leave room for prices to work higher in the coming months. You were previously hand to mouth on feed coverage but now have coverage in cash through the end of December. You are still hand to mouth on meal coverage. Check our advice monitor at ProFarmer.com for our marketing plan.
The Environmental Protection Agency on Tuesday unveiled a pair of options that would require large refiners to blend more biofuels over the next two years. EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced the revisions to the Renewable Fuel Standards during a visit to Pesota, Iowa, as the Trump administration attempts to shore up support from farmers ahead of next month’s midterm elections.
The proposed rule would reallocate 100% of the 2025 renewable fuel volume obligations it waived from 29 small refineries in late August. EPA is seeking public comment on two different approaches.
- Option 1: EPA would divide the additional 2025 SRE volume equally between the 2026 and 2027 compliance years.
- Option 2: EPA would reallocate all the additional 2025 SRE volume to the 2027 compliance year.
EPA said it would take public comments on the proposal until Dec. 4. The agency said the proposed revision may also extend the existing 2026 compliance reporting deadline of March 31, 2027. Biofuel and farm groups had criticized the EPA’s August decision to grant 1.76 billion refinery credits, known as RINs, worth of small refinery exemptions for the 2025 compliance year. EPA had said at the time it would propose to reallocate the exempted volumes to other refiners to maintain overall biofuel blending requirements.
Farm groups cheered Tuesday’s announcement. “We are pleased to see that the administration has kept its pledge to protect farmers and biofuel producers while administering this critical program, and we appreciate that biofuel producers will be kept whole with the reallocation of all waived volumes,” said Matt Frostic, NCGA president and Michigan corn farmer, in a statement.
“ASA applauds Administrator Zeldin and the Trump Administration for keeping their commitment to farmers and proposing to restore 100% of biofuel volume impacted by 2025 small refinery exemption actions,” said American Soybean Association Vice President Dave Walton, an Iowa soybean farmer. “Soybean farmers are navigating a tough farm economy, and the administration’s strong domestic biofuel policies will continue to drive much-needed market demand in the U.S. We are encouraged by today’s proposal and urge EPA to get it across the finish line quickly.”
Market recap: Harvest-related commercial hedge pressure kept a lid on corn and soybean futures Tuesday as combines roll ahead of some weather disruptions expected in the western Corn Belt into Illinois later this week.
- December corn closed down ¼ cent at $4.83 ¾.
- November soybeans fell 4 cents to $12.83 ¾, while December soybean meal lost $5.50 and December soybean oil declined 61 points.
- December soft red winter wheat and December hard red winter wheat both declined 3 cents.
- December cotton fell 9 points.
- December live cattle lost 22.5 cents to end at $226.375 after hitting a two-month high during the session. November feeders lost 7.5 cents to $341.025, after hitting a three-month high.
- December lean-hog futures fell 35 cents to $68.025.
China buyer says U.S. corn ‘not an option yet’: China expects to boost corn production this year as imports edge lower, with U.S. supplies “not an option yet” because they remain uneconomical, Zhang Dalong, agricultural products research director at COFCO Futures said on Tuesday, according to Reuters. Zhang, speaking at a conference in the northeastern city of Dalian, said the country’s new-crop corn production would rise by 5 million to 8 million metric tons from last year, driven largely by northern China. Reuters said he forecast China’s 2026-27 corn imports at 3.5 MMT, down 170,000 tons from the previous year, including 1.2 MMT each from Brazil and Argentina and 900,000 MT from the U.S. Corn bulls have held out hopes for near-term purchases by China after corn was included on a list of commodities covered by a proposed tariff-reduction plan following Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s meeting last month with President Donald Trump in Washington.
Crop condition update: Corn conditions showed unexpected improvement last week, USDA said in its weekly crop progress report Tuesday afternoon, while soybean ratings held steady.
- The percentage of the corn crop rated good or excellent rose to 56% as of Oct. 11, up from 54% the previous week, which was the lowest of the crop season. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected unchanged conditions. The Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500 scale, 500 equals perfect) for corn rose to 348.16 from 347.28. USDA said corn harvest was 33% complete, up from 23% the previous week but behind the 37% average forecast and the five-year average for this time of year at 39%.
- USDA said 57% of the soybean crop was rated good or excellent, unchanged from the previous week and matching expectations. The Pro Farmer soybean CCI rose to 355.18 from 352.77. USDA said the soybean crop was 46% harvested, ahead of the 43% average guess but behind the five-year average of 50%.
- Winter wheat plantings were pegged at 51% complete, up from 36% a week ago and just ahead of expectations for 50%. The five-year average is 58%.
New livestock futures contracts to challenge CME: Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, plans to offer contracts on future cattle and hog prices in bid to take on CME Group, Bloomberg reports. The first cattle and hog contracts will be listed before year-end, targeting a Dec. 7 launch date, pending a regulatory review. ICE plans to offer physically settled cattle futures, as well as three cash-settled contracts for castle and hog prices. The move comes as CME prepares to move its matching engine for certain instruments to a new Google Cloud data center, which the report says has sparked concern among some firms that the shift might boost costs and slow trading speeds.
China’s central bank in gold-buying spree: China’s central bank increased gold holdings by the most in three years in September, the South China Morning Post reports, with Beijing taking advantage of a dip in prices to further pare its exposure to U.S. dollar assets amid tensions with Washington. Holdings rose by 740,000 troy ounces (23 tonnes) to reach 77.47 million ounces at the end of September, the People’s Bank of China said last week. The total gold pile is worth about $324 billion at market prices and compares with China’s foreign exchange reserves of $3.4 trillion, the report said. The People’s Bank of China stepped up gold purchases amid a 6.3% drop in prices during the month as higher U.S. Treasury yields lured investors to the bond market. The report said the central bank has boosted its gold pile for 23 straight months as an alternative to U.S. dollar assets amid concerns about U.S. government debt levels and a reliance on U.S.-controlled financial systems. At the same time, China’s direct holdings of U.S. Treasuries have fallen to an 18-year low.
Report says CFTC staff told to retract analysis of suspicious trades: A Bloomberg report published Tuesday says career forensic analysts at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission flagged the suspicious timing of massive positions predicting falling crude prices and rising stock-market futures that were executed just minutes before President Donald Trump’s March 23 announcement of a decision to back away from strikes on Iranian power plants, generating big profits for traders. But a senior adviser to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig subsequently instructed staff to retract the referral so he could conduct a broader international review himself,the report says, a move that former agency officials described as an unprecedented political intervention. Bloomberg reports that the supervisor and several team members subsequently left the agency or were reassigned. An agency official said the CFTC’s enforcement division continues to probe the trading activity, the report says, while the Justice Department has opened a parallel investigation, according to a person familiar with the matter.