Check our advice monitor at ProFarmer.com for updates to our marketing plan.
A blistering heatwave continues to draw attention to a deteriorating French corn crop. Concerns about a return to hotter weather in the U.S. also helped spark sharp gains for corn and soybean futures as traders returned from a three-day weekend. But one weather forecaster cautions that a high-pressure ridge is unlikely to settle on the Midwest.
- “A strong ridge of high pressure advertised over central North America has added a little excitement to the commodity futures trading day today, but it is unlikely to settle over the heart of the Midwest for any significant length of time,” said Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc. in a Monday afternoon note. The ridge will help Canada’s Prairies dry down and warm up while raising some concern for spring and summer crops in the northern U.S. Plains and northwestern Corn and Soybean Belt, but there should be timely relief in ‘most’ (not all) crop areas.”
Lerner said the high-pressure ridge may expand or even drift somewhat to the east for a brief period, but is unlikely to remain over the Midwest for any great length of time. The earliest that a ridge of high pressure would shift over the heart of the Midwest would probably occur in mid-August at which time the 45-day cooling cycle will have passed.
“The bottom line to this discussion is that most of the U.S. Midwest will see bouts of heat and dryness during the next two to three weeks, but the potential is low for any blocking ridge of high pressure to set up over the Midwest for any great length of time,” Lerner said.
Crop condition update: USDA on Monday said 67% of the U.S. corn crop was rated “good” or “excellent” as of Sunday, up one percentage point from a week ago. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had, on average, expected a one point fall. That compares with 74% a year ago.
- Meanwhile, the Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index, which provides a single, weighted, easy-to-track number (0 to 500 scale, 500 = perfect) that’s widely used to monitor the health and potential of crops during the growing season, slipped to 371.62 from 372.77 a week ago. It stood at 380.26 at this time last year.
- USDA said 64% of the soybean crop was rated good to excellent, down one percentage point from a week ago, while analysts had expected an unchanged reading. The crop was rated 66% good to excellent this time last year. The Pro Farmer CCI rose to 367.16 from 366.80 a week ago. For more details on Pro Farmer CCI ratings, click here.
- USDA said 57% of the spring wheat crop was rated good to excellent, down 2 percentage points from the previous week and 2 percentage points below the average trade guess.
- Winter wheat harvest was pegged at 59% complete, up from 48% last week and a point shy of the 60% average guess. Harvest is running ahead of last year, when it was 53% complete.
- Winter wheat conditions showed 26% of the crop rated good to excellent, unchanged from last week and matching the average trade estimate.
USMCA rationale: USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins told Politico’s Morning Agriculture newsletter that President Donald Trump opted not to renew the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement due to agricultural trade deficits.
“The president believes that there are some inefficiencies in the current system, that we have a pretty big trade deficit with both of those countries and especially in agriculture, and that he is working to solve for that,” Rollins told Politico when asked about USMCA at a news conference Thursday. “Now, it doesn’t mean that the agreement just goes by the wayside.”
The agreement is now subject to year-by-year negotiations, which drew mixed reactions from agricultural groups. The National Corn Growers Association underlined a call for urgent action, citing Mexico’s role as the top destination for U.S. corn exports and Canada’s role as the top destination for ethanol exports. Politico noted that seasonal U.S produce growers argue that Mexican fresh produce floods the U.S. market during their harvest windows, undercutting prices when domestic supply is at its peak, and that the trade framework doesn’t do enough to protect U.S. growers.
Phosphate-powered football: Morocco is enjoying an impressive run in the World Cup. Reuters reports that the North African country’s rise in global football is being powered in part by its massive phosphate reserves. According to Reuters, OCP Group, the world’s largest phosphate fertilizer producer and exporter, is backing the national team through a National Football Training Fund launched in 2024, joining forces with the Royal Moroccan Football Federation and private funders. King Mohammed VI directed the nation’s government to invest in the country’s football infrastructure, including pitches, training academies for youth, stadiums and professional coaches back in 2009, the report noted, with OCP joining the project in 2024.
- Morocco defeated Canada on July 4 to advance to the quarter-finals, where it will face heavily favored France on Thursday.
SAF gains traction in South Korea: Ethanol-based sustainable aviation fuel is getting a foothold among U.S. biofuel producers targeting South Korea’s 2030 SAF blending mandates, S&P Global reported. Industry executives are moving to position alcohol-to-jet technology as a scalable alternative to waste-oil-dependent production, the report said. The efforts come as South Korea prepares to implement SAF blending mandates from 2030, creating demand for production pathways that can deliver volumes beyond what waste cooking oil and animal fat feedstocks can support, the report said, noting that current SAF production relies heavily on HEFA technology using waste oils. S&P said industry participants have pointed to limitations in feedstock availability as a constraint on scaling production to meet aviation sector decarbonization targets.
Don’t miss these must-reads: