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President Donald Trump’s latest pronouncement that a breakthrough toward ending the war with Iran is near sent ripples through global financial markets Thursday, with oil reversing lower, the stock market surging and the dollar dropping sharply.
Markets were on edge earlier after Trump amplified threats to hit Iran hard and floated the possibility of seizing Kharg Island, home to the Islamic Republic’s main oil export facilities—a move that analysts warn could trigger broader Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure across the region.
Trump after midday said the U.S. “just made a great settlement of the war with Iran,” subject to the “finalization of documents.” Speaking in the Oval Office, Trump said that expects the signing of a deal to extend a ceasefire to occur “over the next few days,” CNBC reported. The Strait of Hormuz will be reopened as soon as a deal is signed, Trump said.
Trump has made similar comments about an imminent agreement in the past, including a late May declaration that he was set to make a “final determination” on a ceasefire extension.
Markets reacted, with crude turning south and perhaps putting some added pressure on grain futures late in the session. The dollar, which hit a nine-week high earlier this week, softened, a potential boon for grain and commodity market bulls. A stronger dollar can be a headwind, making commodities priced in the unit more expensive to users of other currencies.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped 0.3% Thursday afternoon in New York after Trump after Trump’s remarks, its biggest one-day decline since May 6.
WASDE recap: Any hopes for a catalyst to turn around the bearish sentiment in corn and soybean futures were left disappointed by Thursday’s June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, though hard red winter wheat futures were buoyed by a cut to a drought-ravaged crop that was already expected to be the smallest in decades.
July corn sank to another contract low and soybeans slumped as the focus remains largely on favorable weather over most of the Corn Belt. USDA left the new-crop U.S. balance sheet for largely unchanged but global carryout was above expectations at 281.2 MMT, with old-crop production lifted by bigger crops for Argentina and Brazil. USDA lifted its 2025/26 Argentine soybean harvest estimate by 2 million metric tons from last month
Report Reaction: Corn, wheat see higher global ending stocks despite production concerns
El Niño arrives: Speaking of the weather, NOAA officially declared El Niño has developed in the tropical Pacific on Thursday. The agency’s National Weather Service says El Niño is expected to strengthen through the fall, with forecasters assigning a 63% chance that sea surface temperatures in the monitored Niño region exceed 2.0°C above average later this year. If that threshold is reached, NOAA would classify the event as a “very strong” El Niño, putting it among some of the most significant events on record.
Don’t miss: El Niño is Officially Here. But Eric Snodgrass Says Don’t Expect It to Drive Summer Weather
Egypt ramps up domestic wheat buys: Egypt has bought a record amount of wheat from farmers and is on track to achieve a goal to buy 5 million metric tons this season after reforms designed to curb the country’s reliance on imports, farmers, Reuters reported, citing traders and officials. Official figures show the government has already bought 4.6 million tons of wheat for the season that runs until mid-August and began in mid-April.One of the world’s largest wheat importers, Egypt typically imports around 10 million tons annually, of which around half is bought by the government as part of its bread subsidy programme that supports around 70 million people.
The report noted that the government has stopped short of making public a clear rationale for the measures to reduce wheat imports, but the result should ease a shortage of foreign currency and the wider strain on the budget.
Corteva’s $85 million settlement: Agrichemicals company Corteva agreed to pay $85 million to resolve farmers’ claims in a U.S. class action lawsuit accusing it of rigging the market for some crop protection products, Reuters reported. The lawsuit in federal court in North Carolina alleged Corteva and Syngenta used loyalty programs with distributors to stymie competition from generic manufacturers, keeping prices of their crop protection products artificially high. Indianapolis-based Corteva denied any wrongdoing in agreeing to settle the lawsuit, which was filed in 2022 and came after the Federal Trade Commission and several states lodged claims against the company. The deal requires approval from a judge. Corteva said in a statement it was pleased to resolve the lawsuit and remains focused on its business and customers.
- The report said the settlement class includes more than 100,000 farmers. The settlement covers purchases since October 2018 of Corteva crop protection products that contained certain active ingredients.
Here comes 24/7 oil and gold trading: CME Group on Friday announced that it will offer 24/7 trading for new, smaller-sized crude oil and gold contracts, pending regulatory review. The new oil contract will be 1/10th the size of CME Group’s existing Micro WTI futures and will launch on August 30. 24/7 trading for the company’s existing 1-Ounce Gold futures will begin on July 26.
- “Traders are increasingly looking to diversify their portfolios across commodity markets in the face of geopolitical uncertainty,” said Derek Sammann, CME Group senior managing director and global head of commodities markets, in a news release. “Our new WTI and Gold futures provide regulated products that are right-sized and available 24/7, ensuring traders can manage exposure whenever news breaks.”
World’s largest IPO: Wall Street was captivated Thursday as SpaceX sold $75 billion worth of shares, marking the largest initial public offering, or IPO, in history. An IPO is the process by which a privately held company sells shares to the public for the first time and begins trading on a stock exchange.
In a statement, SpaceX said it had sold all 555,555,555 shares it made available for its IPO at $135 apiece as planned, valuing the company at around $1.77 trillion. The offering exceeds the previous amount of dollars raised in an IPO, which was set in 2019 by the Saudi Arabian Oil Co., widely known as Aramco, when it sold roughly $26 billion worth of shares, the Wall Street Journal noted. SpaceX is expected to begin trading Friday under the ticker “SPCX.”