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China and the U.S. have remained in contact about further meetings between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Beijing said hours after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio played down worries that allegations of Chinese meddling in U.S. elections would derail high-level engagement. Trump’s remarks in a prime-time address Thursday evening alleging Chinese interference in the 2020 U.S. election had prompted concerns that plans for a U.S. visit by Xi in September could be derailed. In a television interview on Sunday, Rubio said: “We anticipate that the trip is happening in September.”
- Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said on Monday that the Chinese and American sides had “maintained communication regarding the arrangements for the heads of states’ interactions later this year,” the South China Morning Post reported. “Head-of-state diplomacy provides irreplaceable strategic guidance for US-China relations,” Lin said.
Soybean and grain traders remain on alert for any signs of tensions that could endanger what the White House has said is a pledge by Beijing to buy 25 million metric tons a year of soybeans and $17 billion a year of other agricultural goods. Any such concerns appeared put to rest on Monday, with the November contract surging 23 ¼ cents to end at $12.26 ¼. USDA this morning reported daily U.S. soybean sales of 264,000 MT to China and 110,000 MT to unknown destinations during the 2026-27 marketing year.
Crop condition update: Corn and soybean crop condition ratings continued to hang in there despite recent hot, dry weather in the northwest Corn Belt and the Plains. USDA said 67% of the corn crop was rated “good” or “excellent” as of Sunday, down just a percentage point from the previous week and a point above the average trade estimate of 66%. The crop was rated 74% good to excellent at this time last year. The Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (on a 0-to-500 scale, with 500 being perfect) offers a single, weighted number to help track growing conditions. The CCI for corn showed a 0.99 point decline. Most of the Corn Belt saw minor improvements, while areas outside of the core growing region saw declines that slightly outweighed those improvements.
USDA said 66% of the soybean crop was rated good to excellent, up a percentage point from last week and defying analyst expectations for a drop to 64%. The CCI rating rose 2.11 points from last week as well. The largest increases noted in Iowa (up 1.24 points) and Illinois (up 0.93 points) did most of the heavy lifting, with other Midwestern states seeing minor improvements.
USDA said 53% of the spring wheat crop was rated good to excellent, down from 58% a week ago and coming in below the average guess of 56%. The CCI for spring wheat also fell 7.86 points. Higher temperatures in Montana and North Dakota finally showed in condition ratings this week, with warm weather in the northern Plains causing stress to the crop. For more details on this week’s Pro Farmer CCI readings, click here.
No letup in Russia-Ukraine fight in key export corridor: A Russian missile strike on a ship carrying corn near Ukraine’s southern port of Odesa killed 10 people, Reuters reported on Monday, citing Ukrainian officials. The attack was the deadliest in a weeks-long intensification of fighting between Russia and Ukraine that has targeted vessels, ports and grain-handling infrastructure.
The report said Russia hit the Golden Leo — a Guinea-Bissau-flagged ship manned by a crew from India and Syria — with three cruise missiles. A separate Russian attack on Odesa, Ukraine’s largest seaport, killed three people and wounded three others on Monday, according to Serhiy Lysak, head of the city’s military administration.
Traders and analysts have said Ukraine, which in recent years has accounted for around 6% of global wheat exports and about 11% of global corn exports, has lost about a third of its capacity to export grain via its Black Sea ports due to Russian missile and drone attacks, the report noted. The Ukrainian attacks, meanwhile, have forced Russia, the world’s top grain exporter, to limit shipping in the Sea of Azov, a route that handles about a quarter of its grain exports, Reuters noted.
Mexico-bound: Representatives from multiple industries, including agriculture, are set to travel to Mexico with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer during a three-day visit later this week as bilateral talks on the review of the U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA) continues, according to Politico’s Morning Ag newsletter. Greer is set to meet with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard during the trip, according to USTR. The report said the Trump administration is expected to leave the statutory text of the USMCA unchanged to avoid having Congress vote on changes to the deal, preferring to use interpretive agreements, annexes or side letters to make adjustments.
The Trump administration opted not to formally extend the USMCA earlier this month, setting up annual reviews of the deal. Row-crop farm groups have expressed a sense of urgency around the agreement. Mexico is a top customer for U.S. corn exports, while Canada is a top importer of U.S. ethanol.
Group opposes beef-trim futures: In a public comment letter, the Independent Beef Association of North Dakota urged the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to reject a CME Group request to list futures contracts on beef trim, charging that the products would allow beef packers to manipulate prices in a way that would harm cattle producers. CME last month announced plans to launch two types of beef trim contracts, which the exchange operator contends will help the agriculture industry manage risk associated with the key ingredient in producing hamburgers. The financially-settled 90% and 50% Lean Beef Trim futures and options contracts would track products used to produce high-volume ground beef. In the physical market, 90% and 50% represent the lean percentages for beef trim relative to the fat.
“Trading by speculators and algorithms has contributed to volatility in feeder cattle and fat cattle markets that is not supported by underlying market fundamentals,” the North Dakota group wrote. “Rather than improving price discovery, these proposed contracts have the potential to inject additional speculation into an already unstable marketplace.”
Downing Street’s revolving door: Andy Burnham on Monday became the U.K.’s seventh leader in 10 years, replacing fellow Labour politician Keir Starmer, who was booted out after just over two years in office. Political-risk consulting firm Eurasia Group’s GZERO newsletter noted that in the 31 years between 1979 and 2010, the U.K. had only four leaders: Conservatives Margaret Thatcher and John Major, followed by Labour’s Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. Turnover has since accelerated significantly, with five prime ministers – Conservatives Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and Rishi Sunak followed by Starmer and now Burnham – in the last four years alone.
GZERO puts the bulk of the blame on Brexit – an obvious culprit as the issue that has dominated British politics over the past decade. Economic stagnation is also a factor, with the U.K. never fully recovering from the global financial crisis, the report noted, while a series of gaffes and missteps by individual prime ministers has also been an important element. Burnham addressed the turnover issue in his first public comments as prime minister.
- “I am acutely conscious that I am the sixth person in the last 10 years to walk up this street, the seventh prime minister since 2016, making this a moment for reflection and new resolution,” he said. “It requires my generation of politicians to raise our game and rise to the new challenge.”
Biofuel demand boosts canola production: North Dakota’s canola industry continues to expand, with USDA estimating farmers planted a record 2.35 million acres this year, noted Red River Farm Network in a recent report. “We’re really seeing a geographic expansion of canola in the state,” Barry Coleman, executive director of the Northern Canola Growers Association, told the broadcaster. “The northwest part of the state has really grown tremendously in the last five years and now the southeast is growing more and more acres of canola.” Demand is expected to continue climbing as renewable diesel production expands. “We grow 2.9 million acres in the U.S., so it shows the tremendous demand that we have for canola oil just from the biofuel sector,” Coleman said.
The next SAF pathway? Alcohol-to-jet technology is gaining commercial traction in Taiwan and South Korea, according to a report by S&P Global, which said both markets viewing ethanol-based sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) as the best pathway to overcome domestic feedstock constraints, even as analysts warn that demand-side mandates remain the critical missing piece.
“Taiwan’s sustainable aviation fuel demand could reach 182,000 mt by 2030 under a 5% blending mandate, while South Korea hosted a July 2-3 conference on biofuels and SAF that highlighted alcohol-to-jet’s role in meeting the country’s 2030 blending targets, according to the US Grains and BioProducts Council,” the report said.
- S&P Global said the parallel momentum in both markets “reflects a broader strategic shift across Asia-Pacific, where rising electric vehicle adoption is expected to free ethanol currently blended into gasoline and ease concerns over future waste-based oil-derived feedstock constraints that threaten to limit hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids production.”
Herbicide patent lawsuit: Agricultural company Syngenta has sued German chemical giant BASF, alleging that BASF’s new corn herbicide Ridivex infringes a patent related to Syngenta’s competing herbicide Storen, Reuters reported. In the complaint, Syngenta said Rividex misuses its patented chemical formula for a weed killer combined with a crop “safener” to protect crops from damage, the report said. Syngenta said that Ridivex is expected to be approved by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency “within days,” which would clear the way for BASF to begin selling it, and asked the court to block BASF from launching its herbicide in the U.S. A BASF spokesperson told Reuters that the company was aware of the complaint and was reviewing it, while spokespeople for Syngenta did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the complaint.
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