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Barclays Bank PLC’s President, Stephen Dainton, says investors in U.S. markets may be underestimating the risks of high energy prices and interest rates, according to Bloomberg.
“If current events continue into the summer with oil prices at $110-$130 a barrel, that’s a significant concern for credit repricing, growth and stagflation risk,” said Dainton, in an interview earlier today.
Europe is facing particularly big challenges, he said. “Economies on the continent have been growing slowly, and their governments’ limited fiscal capacities leaves European countries less able to absorb shocks. The region is also highly vulnerable to oil and gas supply disruptions.” Dainton noted, the market is beginning to price in these risks.
The U.S. equity market is more resilient, because it is supported by strong consumer demand, investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure and robust defense spending, stated Dainton. “The investment cycle in technology, power and defense is enormous. For now, the U.S. consumer remains exceptionally strong, and this support resilience in risk assets.”
A quick resolution to the war could help boost markets, he said. “Resolution of the conflict in the Middle East could be faster than expected, and the market would likely rebound sharply.”
Commodities and power infrastructure are key areas for investment, according to Dainton. Investment-grade bonds remain attractive as credit spreads have widened, he noted.
UN creates Hormuz task force: The United Nations has created a task force to address humanitarian challenges arising from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, reports Bloomberg.
The mechanism aims to facilitate fertilizer trade, including the movement of raw materials, according to the UN.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres established a dedicated group to “propose technical mechanisms specifically designed to meet humanitarian needs” after tanker traffic in the waterway was halted amid threats of Iranian retaliation.
“As the conflict in the Middle East unfolds and threatens to intensify, disruptions in maritime trade through the Strait of Hormuz risk creating ripple effects impacting humanitarian needs and agricultural production in the coming months,” Stéphane Dujarric, the UN chief’s spokesman, said in a statement.
“While the Secretary-General is committed to making every effort to achieve a comprehensive and durable settlement of the conflict, immediate action is essential to mitigate these consequences.”
The new Hormuz task force will be led by senior UN official Jorge Moreira da Silva and will be “drawing inspiration” from other UN projects, including the Black Sea Grain Initiative designed to increase Ukrainian agricultural shipments following Russia’s full-scale invasion.
Trump calls for cut to tractor costs: President Donald Trump said earlier today that he wanted top agriculture supply brands, including John Deere, Case and Caterpillar, to lower tractor and equipment costs for farmers.
“I want John Deere and Case and off of – they’re great companies, Caterpillar…I want these companies to give it to you in the form of lower tractor and equipment costs,” Trump said at a White House event.
Reuters also reported Trump also announced a series of actions aimed at agricultural communities, saying the U.S. Small Business Administration would open up new loan guarantees for farmers and food suppliers.
Deal or no deal?: House Republicans on Friday rejected bipartisan Senate legislation to end a partial government shutdown and fund most of the Department of Homeland Security, according to Bloomberg.
Instead, they plan to vote on a spending package that funds the department – including immigration enforcement and Border Patrol – until May 22, though Senate Democrats have said such a measure is “dead on arrival.”
House Speaker Johnson said they plan to vote as soon as possible, signaling it could come as soon as this weekend.
President Trump did sign a memo directing Transportation Security Administration personnel to be paid, to alleviate disruptions at U.S. airports amid the ongoing shutdown of the TSA, Bloomberg reports.
“As President of the United States, I have determined that these circumstances constitute an emergency situation compromising the Nation’s security, Trump said, adding the absences “unacceptably heighten the risk of security vulnerabilities within our domestic travel system” and have “negatively impacted countless Americans.
Consumer sentiment slides: U.S. consumer sentiment fell more than expected in March, falling to a three-month low, as inflation fears were stoked amid the ongoing war in the Middle East.
The University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers reported the decline occurred across political party affiliation and age groups, with large decreases among middle- and higher-income consumers as well as those owning stocks.
However, the correlation between consumer sentiment and spending is weak, rising gas prices and falling share values, combined with a stagnant labor market, could undercut consumption and dampen economic growth, notes Reuters. Higher-income households have led consumer spending, underpinned by robust wealth levels.
“Sentiment hit a record low in mid-2022 when inflation was at its highest level in decades, but the economy held up with solid GDP growth and a historically strong labor market,” noted Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial.
“But if conflict drags on, gasoline prices move even higher in the summer driving season, and stocks continue to falter, consumers could throw in the towel and start to pull back on their spending.”
It was 56.6 in February and is not too far from the record low that was carved in June 2022. The survey’s short-run economic outlook gauge dove 14%, while a measure of year-ahead expected personal finances sank 10%. Declines in long-run expectations were more subdued, the survey showed.
Growth in Paraguay: Paraguay posted its highest growth in more than a decade last year, with the economy expanding by 6.6%, according to Bloomberg.
All major sectors reported gains, led by agriculture, power generation, services and construction, Paraguay’s central bank said in a report on Friday. Analysts had forecast growth of 5.8%, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg News.
Paraguay’s alignment with the U.S. and Taiwan at the expense of lost access to China’s market hasn’t hobbled its $47 billion economy. The expansion seen in 2025 tops three consecutive years of rapid growth, driven by domestic demand and farm exports like soy and beef. The Mercosur-EU trade pact set to go into effect in May could open new markets for its agricultural products and manufactured goods.
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