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China expects grain output to rise in 2026, with imports of soybeans and other major agricultural products set to fall, China Daily reported Monday, citing a new agricultural outlook report.
The outlook expects continued improvement in crop yield to boost grain production, which is forecast to rise 0.2% this year to 716 million metric tons. Oil-crop output is seen rising 2.6% to 42.04 million metric tons. Soybean imports are projected to fall 6.1% from 2025, the first decline in recent years, the report said. Pork imports are seen down 8.2%, with dairy imports down 4.1%.
Over the longer term, the report projects that China’s grain output will continue to climb steadily, reaching 733 million tons by 2030 and 753 million tons by 2035. Grain consumption is forecast to grow slowly before peaking at 842 million tons around 2032, after which it will stabilize and gradually decline, the report said.Total grain imports are projected to fall to 115 million tons by 2035, a 25.5 percent drop from the average between 2023 and 2025. Soybean imports are expected to slow to 82.55 million tons, down 21.5 percent.
Wheat conditions head south: Winter wheat conditions continue to deteriorate, reflecting drought in key hard red winter wheat areas of the Plains. USDA on Monday said 30% of the winter wheat crop was rated “good” to “excellent,” down from 34% a week earlier and 45% at the same time a year ago. Analysts had expected the “good” to “excellent” ratings of to come in at 33%.
Pro Farmer’s Crop Condition Index, which reweights USDA’s initial ratings based on historical production for the last three years at the state level, also reflected the deteriorating situation. The CCI attempts to more accurately reflect the impact on total crop production than a straight weighting of the values. For the percentage of crops not included in state ratings, the model assumes similar conditions as in the major production states.
- On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop declined 10.8 points to 270.81, and is well below the condition ratings for this time last year.
- The SRW crop is faring better but still declined 5.44 points to 360.64. The more northern growing regions of Illinois and Ohio are in better shape compared to the drier states in the Southeast.
The further deterioration in conditions in HRW areas comes before any potential damage from this weekend’s freeze over parts of the Plains becomes apparent.
Planting progress: Meanwhile, USDA estimated 11% of the corn crop was planted as of Sunday, up from 5% a week earlier and ahead of the five-year average of 9%. The average analyst estimate looked for 10% complete, according to a Reuters survey.
Soybean plantings were 12% complete, up from 6% a week earlier and the five-year average of 5% but largely in line with the average estimate of 11%.
USDA said 12% of hard red spring wheat was planted, up from 6% a week ago and matching the five-year average. Analysts had looked for a figure of 14%.
Tariff refunds: Businesses can start filing for tariff refunds Monday night, beginning the process of unwinding billions of dollars in import duties collected by the Trump administration under emergency powers that were later determined by the Supreme Court to exceed the president’s constitutional authority. Customs and Border Protection will launch the first phase of the new claims system at 8 p.m. ET, according to Fox Business.
The Supreme Court decision cleared the way for lower courts to order refunds. A judge at the U.S. Court of International Trade subsequently directed CBP to remove the tariffs from affected entries and refund excess duties collected, along with interest.
Potential SE Asia bioethanol venture: Indonesia is in discussions with Japan’s Toyota Motor Asia about a potential joint investment in bioethanol production in the Southeast Asian country, Reuters reported, citing a government official and executives from Toyota. The report said Pertamina, a renewable energy subsidiary of Indonesia’s state-owned energy firm, is talking about a potential join investment with Toyota Tsusho for a bioethanol plant in Indonesia’s Lampung province on the southern tip of Sumatra.If they reach a deal, construction on a plant with capacity of 60,000 kilolitres of bioethanol a year could begin in the second half of this year, with production eyed in 2028. A new 6,000 hectare (14,800 acre) sorghum plantation would provide the feedstock. The estimated total cost is seen at $200 million to $300 million.
Siberian backlash results in firing: A provincial agriculture official in Siberia was fired Monday following protests by farmers against the culling of cattle that went viral on the internet, Reuters reported, noting the incident was a rare case of criticism of authorities being acknowledged by the Kremlin. The Novosibirsk regional governor, Andrei Travnikov, said he had fired the region’s agriculture minister, Andrei Shindelov, over his handling of cattle disease.
Apple succession: A changing of the guard is in store for tech giant Apple Inc., which announced Monday that John Ternus would succeed Tim Cook as CEO. Cook will assume the role of executive chairman on Sept. 1. Ternus is currently senior vice president of hardware engineering. It marks the first CEO transition since Cook, 65, succeeded Steve Jobs in 2011, shortly before the Apple co-founder’s death.
CNBC noted that Apple’s market cap increased by roughly 24-fold under Cook’s leadership, closing Monday at $4 trillion.