Check our advice monitor at ProFarmer.com for updates to our marketing plan.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier on Monday raised his estimate of Brazil’s corn crop by 2 million tons to 134 million tons, with a neutral bias. He noted that rainfall last week and over the weekend favored central and southern Brazil. That led to improvements in soil moisture for the southern safrinha corn, but it slowed soybean harvesting in Rio Grande do Sul. Rainfall should increase over much of Brazil this week, which is good news for the safrinha corn, he said. Cordonnier left his estimate of Brazil’s soybean crop unchanged at 179 million tons, with a neutral to potentially higher bias depending on results out of Rio Grande do Sul.
USDA in its April WASDE report last week left its estimate of Brazil’s corn and soybean crop unchanged from March at 132 million tons and 180 million tons, respectively.
Argentina’s corn crop estimate was left unchanged at 54 million tons, with a neutral to higher bias. The country’s soybean crop was also left unchanged, at 48 million tons, with a neutral to higher bias. USDA also left its Argentine corn and soybean estimates unchanged last week at 54 million tons and 48 million tons, respectively. The big outlier is the Rosario Grain Exchange, which last week boosted its estimate from 62 million tons to 67 million tons, driven largely by a boost to planted area of 420,000 hectares (1.03 million acres) to 8.5 million hectares harvested, Cordonnier noted.
From Russia with reserves: Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, should look to establish joint food reserves among BRICS nations to mitigate supply risks associated with the crisis in the Middle East, a senior Russian security official said Monday.
- “To ensure food security, it is highly important to expand cooperation with friendly countries, primarily the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union and BRICS, including through the creation of joint food reserves,” said Alexander Maslennikov, deputy secretary of Russia’s Security Council, Reuters reported citing domestic news agencies.
Acid reflux: Reports that China has decided to halt sulphuric acid exports, together with the failure of peace talks between the United States and Iran over the weekend, risks driving prices higher and disrupting global mining and fertilizer supply chains with few alternatives available, the South China Morning Post reported.
“Administrative controls are expected to amount to a de facto suspension of sulphuric acid exports from May 2026,” Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at Dutch investment bank ING, told the newspaper, though he added that he hadn’t seen any official notifications from government agencies. “I’d imagine the intention would be to secure fertiliser supply, which is currently at risk thanks to the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for around a third of seaborne fertiliser trade as well as a lot of global sulphur exports.”
“China’s outright ban on sulphuric acid exports starting in May 2026 – rather than any mere reduction – is shaping up to be a serious global supply shock that will drive prices higher and squeeze mining and fertiliser chains already battered by Middle East sulphur disruptions,” said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for the Asia-Pacific region at French investment bank Natixis, according to the report. She warned that the pain would be felt worldwide but would be particularly severe in Asia, where booming industrial and agricultural sectors had grown “dangerously dependent” on Chinese imports.
- “Indonesia stands to get hit the hardest there, since it now produces over 60 per cent of the world’s nickel ... potentially leading to production cuts and sharper cost spikes,” she said.
OPEC output plunge: War took a toll on crude oil production by major Gulf Arab exporters in March, according to data released by OPEC on Monday.
- CNBC noted that Iraq took the biggest hit with production collapsing 61% from 4.2 million barrels per day in February to 1.6 million bpd in March, according to the organization’s monthly report.
- Output dropped 53% in Kuwait and 44% in the United Arab Emirates month over month, the data showed.
- Production in Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s biggest producer, dropped 23% from 10.1 million bpd to 7.8 million bpd.
The report noted that the Saudis have relied on a crucial East-West pipeline to reroute barrels from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea for export. The pipeline, however, recently saw an attack by Iran, which cut its capacity by 700,000 barrels a day, according to the state-owned Saudi Press Agency. That left OPEC output down 27% month over month from 28.7 million bpd to 20.8 million bpd.
No relief: The parts of hard red winter wheat country worst-hit by drought didn’t get much in the way of relief. Rain in the past week behaved as expected with a restricted amount of dryness relief in the western parts of the production region, said Andrew Owen, meteorologist at World Weather Inc., in a Monday note. “Much of the west-central and northwestern production areas are advertised to remain dry or mostly dry during the next ten days while a few showers occur in the Texas Panhandle,” he wrote.
The best weather conditions for winter wheat will continue from north-central Texas through central Oklahoma to eastern production areas in Kansas where frequent rain is expected, the forecaster said. “Additional opportunities for rain may evolve later this month and in May and ‘eventually’ there will be some greater rain in the driest areas, but it may come a little late for the best yields in 2026.”
Don’t miss these must-reads: