Accumulated export inspections for corn continue to run ahead of the historical pace needed to hit the USDA export estimate of 3.3 billion bushels by an impressive 145 million bushels, though that is down from over 275 million bushels ahead of schedule at the start of the calendar year.
Corn garnered most of the attention at docks last fall, helping build momentum for exports early in the marketing year, a time that typically favors soybeans. Corn inspections the past several weeks have not been poor from an objective view, but weekly shipments still fall shy of what would be considered normal in a year where over 3 billion bushels are shipped. Since the start of the year, soybeans have garnered more bandwidth at export terminals, reducing capacity for corn shipments. More recently, Iran being blocked from Brazilian corn shipments (Iran is the number 1 buyer of Brazilian supplies) has offered more competition on the world market for U.S. origin corn. Even though the pace has fallen, corn exports are still on track to come in above USDA’s figure, but the next couple of months will be key.
Soybean shipments catching up
As China was absent from the U.S. market in the fall, soybean exports suffered. Since the start of 2026, soybean shipments have generally come in above the historic pace needed to hit the current USDA export estimate of 1.54 billion bushels. That has helped reduce the deficit in the pace as seen in the chart below. Still, accumulated inspections are about 141 million bu. behind where they would be in a normal export season. That deficit has shrink from over 281 million bushels at the start of the year. Our analysis looking at shipments and outstanding sales indicates a beat of the USDA export estimate is still possible and would not be unprecedented, though the upcoming meeting between President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will be key, especially considering Brazilian supplies are abundant.
Wheat inspections now on pace
Accumulated wheat inspections were indicating a likely beat of USDA’s export estimate of 900 million bu. by nearly 50 million bu. late last year, though that surplus has been slowly eroding over the course of this year. As it stands, the accumulated inspection pace points to a possible beat of USDA’s forecast by 9 million bushels. With less than two months to go in the marketing year, that figure is not likely to shift much. U.S. wheat stocks will remain abundant to finish out the 2025-26 marketing year, but crop concerns have quickly garnered the attention of traders.
